8/31/10

STOCK: Robert Carson, GCL Mets, Jenrry Mejia,


9-1-10 – Stock Down – Look, no matter how we break this down, Robert Carson has not progessed enough this past season to be currently considered a top pitching prospect. He was absolutely lit up last night, going 5.0-IP, 9-H, 7-ER, 5-K, 2-BB, 1-WP. His Binghamton ERA is now 8.74, and, if you add that to his 4.17 in Lucy, the year looks like: 8-11, 5.74., with only 97-K in 131.2-IP, plus 55-BB. This has not been a great year for three of the Mets top so-called pitching prospects (Carson, Jeurys Familia, Brad Holt) and the season seesm to be coming to an end at the right time for Robert.


Old stuff this year on Carson:



1-1-10 Forecast: - Carson would have been ranked higher if he finished the season strong, but he didn’t. The Mets should have bumped him to St. Lucie at least two months prior to the end of the season, but they didn’t, and that could have been hanging over Carson. There’s a hell of a lot of talent here along with his confidence and bravado. I look for a tremendous season at St. Lucie in 2010.


5-22-10: Carson has put together three decent starts coming into Friday night, after starting the season all over the place. He did give up 12 hits Friday night, but his overall stats were impressive: 7.1-IP, 2-ER, 3-K. His ERA is now down to 4.95 from a year high of 81.00 on April 15.


5-22-10: - SP Robert Carson: Carson also got off to a bad start, especially his second outing of the year (0.2-IP, 6-ER, 81.00). The good news is, in his last three outings, Carson has stats of: 16.1-IP, 5-ER, 12-Ks. His last outing on May 17 was especially hot, striking out nine in 5.0-IP. Carson is 21-years old and, like Familia, projects out as a possible 2013 starter for the Mets


6-17-10: - A+ SP Robert Carson had another great outing, throwing 6..0 scoreless innings, giving up only two hits and striking out seven. His ERA is now below five, and he's given up only 2-ER in his last three starts (19.0-IP). This is real good news folks and there actually is a chance you may see him move on to Binghamton at some point this season.


6-30-10: - Carson did everything he could to throw a shutout Monday night… his first seven innings were close to perfect, but he eventually tired in the 8th inning, giving up four runs (7.2-IP, 4-ER, 9-H, 4-K, 1-BB). He did get the victory (6-4), and his ERA ended up at 4.54. There’s been a bunch of negativity in the scouting world involving Carson… many question whether he has that “something special”needed to make it someday in the Bigs. No one has every questioned his confidence (his Facebook name is Robert “Imdestinedforgreatness” Carson.) Let’s hope this is another sign that his game is returning.


7-4-10: - Carson continued Sunday night putting his season back together... 7.0-IP, 2-ER, 7-K, 1-BB... ERA down to 4.37. That translates to a 3.41 ERA over the last 10 starts, which, if that was his seasonal stats, he would already be on is way to Binghamton.


7-14 from: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/7/14/1567569/mets-farm-system-mid-term-review  - No, on the surface those numbers are not very impressive. However, following a 7.07 April ERA, Carson has been very solid in each of the following months, including a 2.08 ERA in July. And really it isn't just the numbers that give me confidence with Carson, it's the reports on his increased stamina, mound presence and fastball command. After a 2009 where he regularly tired by the 6th, the big-bodied Carson is now holding his low to mid 90's velocity deep into games and is consistently commanding the fastball to both sides of the plate. He has also learned to work extremely quickly, improving his game pace and rhythm. While it may take a while, Carson is doing exactly what it takes for him to round into that back of the rotation innings-eater I'm hoping for instead of just a LOOGY.


9-1-10 - Stock down: - So, the GCL Mets make the playoffs as a wildcard and they had to play a one game, winner take all, game against the GCL Phillies, for the honor of moving on in the playoffs. As we wrote yesterday, both the manager and the pitching coach were sent packing after they got into each other on the field a couple of games ago. So, somebody else had to choose the starting pitcher for this critical game, and whoever it was, picked Domingo Tabia instead of Marcos Camerena… wrong move… Tabia’s stats: 1.1-IP, 7-R-, 6-H, 2-BB, and 1-HBP. Rumor is the Phillies sent cheese steaks to his locker after the game.



But, this isn’t the real issue, is it? These are VERY young men, busting their ass every day in the hot sun, being paid peanuts, and you would thing the last thing that would happen is their mentors start acting like their bunk mate in school.


BTW, both Tabia (#108) and Camerena (#95)
 are on The Keepers list.

Here’s the old stuff on both of Camerena:


Marcos Camerena seems to be the one standout player that will come out of the DSL/VSL system this year. Camarena debuted with the DSL Mets in 2008, going 0-1, 3.68 in 7 relief appearances. This year, he was moved to a starter and produced stats of: 7-2. 1.74, in 14 games, 12 starts. He also had 57K, and only 10-BB in 67.1-IP.


1-1-10:: As usual, not much info on this guy, but he’s 6-3, 202 and was virtually unhittable this season. Then again, how many others have I said this same thing about over the years (Nelson Portillo and Alay Soler comes to mind). I think we’ll see him in extended came come March and I’m sure he’ll pitch for one of the winter teams as well.


5-30-10 from: - http://myworldofbaseball.com/wordpress/?cat=42  - Marcos Camarena RHP - Marcos was 7-2, 1.74 in the DSL, allowing righthanders to hit only .198 against him. He had a 1 to 7 walk to K ratio, which should get him a promotion to a short season league stateside.


6-27-10: - Camerena piggybacked with another GCL Mets pitcher on Saturday and was just about perfect: 4.0-IP, 0-H, 0-R, 3-K, 1-BB. The team is still trying to figure out which five pitchers will settle in to their rotation, and Marcos made a good case for being one of them.


8-15-10: - SP Marcus Camerena continues to impress for Kingsport. He ”went the distance” in a 7-inning game Sunday, with stats of: 8-H, 3-ER, 3-K, 1-BB, and a seasonal ERA of 3.19 (in 9-G, 4-starts). He impressed us all last year for the DSL team (7-2, 1.74), as well as his short stint near the end of the 2009 season for the same team he plays for now (2-2, 3.03). The 6-3 righty turns 20 in September and I expect to see him Savannah next spring.

Stock Up: - I don’t mean to blow more smoke up you, but you have really feel much better about 2011 after the Jenry Mejia performance last night for Buffalo. I mean, the Mets went into last night’s game with Atlanta with the… 2nd LOWEST ERA IN THE LEAGUE… after the all-star break. You add Mejia to the mix next spring, plus a possible reborn Chad Cordero (yeah, I know… if signed) and the Mets really don’t have to worry about pitching next season. A rotation of Santana, Mejia, Niese, Pelfrey, and Dickey… well, it sure sounds good to me. Stats for the night: - 8.0-IP, 103-pitches, 5-H, 1-R, 9-K, 1-BB. On to Chicago….


Here’s my old 2010 notes on Mejia:


1-10-10 Forecast: - Everybody loves Jenrry Mejia. He was the talk of the winter leagues, both for his speed and the speed the ball went off opponent’s bats. He still has a long way to go and will start again at AA, but anyone who has spent any time observing him says he’s a can’t miss. Me? He’s a closet closer.


4-6-10 – Jack Flynn on Mack’s Mets: - At a time when Jenrry Mejia should be donning a Binghamton Mets jersey and preparing for his Opening Day assignment against Akron on Thursday, he is instead in the back of Jerry Manuel's bullpen having his development stunted. Relievers are made, not born. It's an old-school way of thinking, but I truly believe that every pitcher should be given an opportunity to fail as a starter before being converted into a reliever. By pre-emptively putting Mejia in the bullpen based on 15 Spring Training innings, the Mets are crippling his potential to develop secondary pitches and to blossom into a top-flight starter.


4-28-10: - http://benmaller.com/mlb  - As the Mets’ bullpen has exceeded expectations in the early part of the season, the need for Jenrry Mejia might be diminishing. But Jerry Manuel remains adamant that the 20-year-old will be a bigger part of the pen rather than be pushed out and sent to tune up for an eventual starting role. Asked if the emergence of Fernando Nieve in the pen could free up Mejia to become a starter, Manuel declined, instead noting that he’d like to work him more into a late-inning role


5-6-10: - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/someone-help-the-mets  - Ignore the extra innings mismanagement of Francisco Rodriguez. That’s merely another bullet point on Manuel’s pink slip. Consider the horrendous handling of Jenrry Mejia to date. Manuel has instructed him to focus on his fastball – presumably the pitch that needs the least work for Mejia to become a good starter. If telling the organization’s best pitching prospect to disregard developing his secondary stuff isn’t enough, then how about then using that pitcher in lower leverage situations than just about everyone else in the bullpen? Manuel is actually using Mejia in the perfect developmental situations, yet he’s capping that development by disallowing him to throw his curve and change-up as often as he wants. Meanwhile, Mejia’s service clock continues to tick


5-22-10: - SP Jenrry Mejia: It’s impossible to project Mejia’s future right now because he’s supposed to return to the minors and be stretched out back to a starter. The problem is he’s still sitting in the Queens pen. So far this season: 20 outings, 19.0-IP, 3.79 ERA, 14-K, 11-BB… okay, but not what a 19-year old is supposed to be doing. The good news… he’s an extremely talented young man that should be a Met for a very long time.


5-26-10 from: - http://baseballanalysts.com/  - In combining both horizontal and vertical movement, it's evident that Peter Moylan generates enough movement on his fastball to throw it at elite levels, while Cabrera, again, has a mediocre-to-awful fastball in spite of his velo. Remember, I'm only including 95 MPH pitches, so imagine how bad his fastball must have been in 2009 at 91 MPH. Cabrera is the poster boy for pitchers who can throw gas but have no command or movement, rendering their fastball ineffective. Kevin Jepsen, Jonathan Broxton, and Brian Wilson are examples of pitchers whose 90-MPH pitches are better than most pitchers' 95s, since those guys are throwing off speed at 90. Also of note: Jenrry Mejia's fastball has excellent movement


6-17-10: - http://baseballanalysts.com/  - I have no idea if Citi Field's PITCHf/x system is calibrated correctly, but Jenrry Mejia has been throwing a fair share of fastballs that cut toward his glove side. Most fastballs tail at least somewhat to the glove side. Mejia still needs to command his pitches, but I believe a couple decades ago there was another Latin American 20-year-old learning to harness a fastball with incredible cutting movement who went on to close games in New York. At least the Yankees let Mo fail as a starter before he moved to the pen


6-20-10: - http://www.rotoworld.com/  - Jenrry Mejia was sent to Double-A Brooklyn after Sunday's game and will start in the minors. His value is highest as a starter, obviously, and it appears that Mets manager Jerry Manuel finally saw the light. He acknowledged that Mejia might be being wasted with use in the seventh inning. Now, the Mets will attempt to get him stretched out for my extensive use later on in this season. Keep in mind that there is still plenty of dispute as to whether Mejia should be a starter or a reliever, so if he struggles, the team could always put him back in the bullpen


6-21-10: - Maybe it took two loses to the Yanks, or maybe somebody finally just hit Jerry in the head, but Jenrry Mejia has been returned to the AA-Binghamton market are put back into the starting rotation. I also understand he will start on Wednesday. All this makes my prediction of Mark Cohoon being promoted from Savannah here a distant long shot, but we’ll see. I still think there’s a good chance that Mike Antonini will move on to Buffalo this month. Right now, the B-Mets rotation (Mejia, Antonini, Eric Niesen, Josh Stinson, and Chris Schwinden) is a pretty good one. And, no AAAA waste here. All pitchers that actually have a chance of getting to the Bigs. Is the Mejia move something that will enhance his value in a trade. I think so, but we’ll see.


6-27-10: - Suffering from a stiff right shoulder, Jenrry Mejia was forced to leave his start for Double-A Binghamton today after just an inning-plus. Mejia faced two batters in the second inning and seven for the game against Akron before departing. He allowed no runs, surrendering two hits and two walks while striking out two. He threw 43 pitches, 23 strikes. The Mets said Mejia was removed for "precautionary" reasons, though certainly this is an alarming development.


6-28-10: - Jenrry Mejia was examined in New York on Monday and diagnosed with a posterior cuff strain in his right shoulder. The Mets say he will return to throwing "as tolerated," but we're not exactly sure what that might mean. Mejia was lifted from a start at Double-A Binghamton on Sunday after complaining of discomfort in his throwing shoulder. He's been working on building up his stamina down in the minors with the hope of returning to the big leagues as a starter around late July


7-28 from: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/7/28/1592006/mets-farm-q-a-with-baseball  - It shouldn't affect him long term unless the Mets start jerking around him, shuttling him back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation and from the minors to Triple-A. He could wind up being a reliever in the long run, but it would be silly not to try to turn him into a quality starter.


8-2-10: Mejia’s rehabbing stint made its way to St. Lucie last night and it was quite impressive: 4.0-IP, 1-H, 0-R, 7-K. Mejia’s conversion back to a starter seems to be right on target and I expect him back in the Binghamton rotation by mid-August and on to Queens in September.



8-5-10: - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/8/5/1606179/2010-top-20-new-york-mets  - Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B+: Back in the minors on rehab for a strained shoulder, after spending most of the spring in New York, 3.25 ERA with the Mets, 17/15 K/BB in 28 innings, 29 hits. He held his own before getting hurt, but I still think it was stupid for him to be on the major league roster this year.



8-8-10: - It would be impossible not to write about Mejia’s performance last night. First, the stats: 4.1-IP, 3-H, 0-R, 4-K, 2-BB, 10-GB. He sat most of the night at 96 and hit 99 once. His seasonal minor league ERA, where he’s been a starter all the time, is now 1.17 (his WHIP is 1.69 due to 6-BB in 7.2-IP). I’m sure we’ll see him in Queens again this year, this time as a starter.



8-14: - Look… if last night’s outing by Jenrry Mejia is the worst he ever pitches, we’ll have ourselves a future HOFer. Mejia went: 5.2-IP, 8-H, 3-ER, 3-BB, 5-K, and his AA-ERA “soared” to 2.70. Reports from the stadium were that he didn’t have the pinpoint accuracy he had his last outing, but the velocity was still there. Mejia is sitting at 96 now, and hit 98 again last night. Remember… the Mets really only need one more SP (Santana, Niese. Pelfrey, Dickey). This sure looks like a strong candidate for 2011 (btw… Mejia threw this game against Michael Cisco, son of ex-Met Galen Cisco).



8-20-10: - We’re running out of superlatives involving Jenrry Mejia’s current return to an SP role in Binghamton. He easily had his best minor league outing on Wednesday night, going 7.0-IP, 1-H, 0-R, 8-K, 2-BB, with a 1.77 ERA. Even more important, Dylan Owen, who seemed lost this year as a starter, seems to be reinventing himself as a successful reliever, going 2.0 hitless innings and lowering his seasonal ERA to 3.57.Okay, Owen’ reliever ERA (4.55) is still higher that the six outings he started (2.70 ERA)… so why the relief role? I’m getting confused. Back to the main issue… Mejia is game ready which is very good news for the Mets.

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