I realize that there will be many people who disagree with this sentiment. Murph has made strides defensively and Parnell has grown into the closer's role over the last few years, to the point where we can feel confident that he will shut the door on the opposition when he comes in. I like both of these players and would like to hold onto them. However, the Mets have too many holes to fill and have far too few assets to trade. Teams in the hunt have use for these players and making deals with established players for young talent plays right into Alderson's wheelhouse.
With Parnell, he's really come a long way. We also don't know who would take his place next year. There are some interesting options internally and on the free agent market. Sandy has shown a willingness to spend on free agent closers and there is nothing to imply he would not do so again. If Parnell is traded, I could see Alderson bringing in someone like Jesse Crain if he can be added at a reasonable contract. In dealing Parnell, I have no doubt thatSandy would return a player with promise and hype, someone to either fill in an organizational need or as part of a bigger trade package for an established hitter. The Mets would be selling high on Parnell and could market him based not only on his talent but also on his years of control. As much as I'd like to have him around, he just might be the Mets' most valuable trade piece.
I'm a little surprised at the positive attention Murphy has been getting lately. Sure, he's no longera butcher in the field, but he's no Roberto Alomar with the glove. At the plate (his strong suit), Murphy is hitting .270 and OPS'ing .700. These are hardly the numbers of a player that is a untouchable piece of the core going forward. Id rather the Mets see if they can squeeze a decent prospect out of a contending team and address 2B in the offseason. I bet if given the chance, there are young players in the minors who could give the Mets a .700 OPS at 2B but don't carry the price tag of 'an established' MLB player.
As I mentioned, I wish the Mets had a plethora of young hitting talent so they could hold onto these two. Unfortunately, they likely have the best trade value and will likely be easier to replace than some fans might like to admit.
11 comments:
My nemesis we meet again on a familiar battle field! Parnell and Murph both have value. Yes Murphy has been in a slump but he’s always been streaky. I bet he finishes this year with a 290 average and an ops in the 750-775 range. I think you’ve understated defense as well, he’s actually above average so far this year by defensive metrics. I also think he’s a big time leader I the club house behind Weight and is a great team mate. Now I will say that I would trade him in the right deal, it’s not like he’s untradeable but I doubt we’ll get enough value back from another team.
We’re more likely to get a good return on our investment from Parnell. The problem is what if we have a big turn around next year and we’re competitive? If we don’t have a good closer it will be like 2008 when Billy Wagner was hurt down the stretch, good starting pitching and a good offense but terrible late inning relief.
I would need to see a trade that was very much in our favor to warrant trading either of these solid MLB players (we don’t have many on the roster right now though that’s changing.) Also you’d have to fill both these holes as well. I’m not sold on Flores playing second, most people say Murph has much more range then him and what if Flores struggles offensively when he comes up?
Here’s my new plan…
Choo LF
Beltran RF
Wright 3B
Tulo SS
Davis 1B
D’Arnaud C
Murphy 2B
Lagaures CF
Rotation
Harvey
Niese
Wheeler
Gee
Montero
Bench: Young, Baxter, Turner, Lutz, Pena,
Pen: Parnell, Leathersich, Rice, Hefner etc.
You sign Beltran on a 2 year deal for about 8 mil a year.
Sign Choo for 5 years at 15 a year
Trade Duda, Valdespin, Tejada and Syndagaurd (I know you love him and I know he’s a stud but you need to include a top prospect) for Tulo.
You still have trade chips in the minors to trade for an elite pen arm or two. Beltran holds down the fort for Puello. If Puello is ready to come up you can drop Baxter from the bench and make Puello the starter in CF. Either way you have some depth here in the outfield. I’d also switch up Tulo and Davis in the order depending on the pitching matchup. Hefner would be very valuable as the long man/ spot start to keep the pen fresh.
Thanks for the response...as always It's intelligent and thought-out. We're not that far apart, I'll respond later as I have to go to work now. If you would like to continue, look for my comments tonight.
I'll be sure to check in. I'm curious to see your newest plan.
Personally think it is a bit too early to be making plans for the offseason. Still too many unanswered questions, is lagares a starter next year, what about davis, is wheeler a #2 or more of a back end guy who is still developing, what about reuben, etc....
Just wanted to throw out some names of guys we don't really hear much about. First off if Lagares isn't the answer in center I'd think about going after Bourjos or Fowler. Also would think about corey Hart. Big fan of resigning Beltran but think he would cost at least 12 per year, which I'm fine with. Not a big fan of going after Tulo, has a big contract and been getting injured a lot recently. Maybe if he is healthy the rest of the year. I'm ok with going after choo for a corner, not center. Not a big fan of going after Ellsbury, will get paid as a power hitter based on 2011. Of course for a reasonable deal I'd be fine, but it would have to be around what Bourn got. Another guy that hasn't been mentioned much is Cruz. And if we do trade for a SS I'd probably prefer Cabrea. Just some thoughts...
First, I wouldn't trade these two just to trade them. I'm expecting that Sandy would do what he does, hold out for the best deal he can or walk away.
Murphy may be an integral part and leader of THIS team, but I don't think that means he has to be the same on the NEXT team. Taking a look at your lineup (which I really like btw, but more on that later) you've added Choo, Beltran, and Tulowitzki. I don't see how that much roster turnover would leave Murphy in any kind of leadership position. Sure, he's been with the team for a while and the transient and young players look up to him. On next year's team, he'd be just. 7th-hitting 2B. If the Mets could add the players in your lineup, I think the locker room would belong to Wright, Carlos, Tulo, Harvey, and maybe Davis.
I'm glad you mentioned Syndergaard because my willingness to trade Murphy and Parnell for young talent is tied to keeping Noah in the organization. As you said, we have to give up something to get something. As the Mets will be actively pursuing hitting, potential trading partners will ask for Thor. I want Sandy to be in a position to counter with Montero and additional young talent (acquired for Murph and Parnell) to take e place of Thor in any deal. By having Syndergaard in the rotation, the Mets have the potential for an elite staff. Pitchers with his size and velocity don't come around often and dealing him would be a huge mistake.
If the Mets can add the players you mentioned, I'm not concerned if Flores can replace Murphy. First of all, Flores may be the best option on the farm, but since when is the team only allowed to deal a player if the replacement is waiting in the wings? Alderson will have an entire offseason to also get a new 2B. If this new player is hitting 7th, there shouldn't be pressure to replace Murphy's bat....it's already been replaced by Choo, Beltran, and Tulo. The Mets can find someone decent to play 2B in that scenario.
With Parnell, it's tough to give up a closer who has been rock solid like he has. However, other relievers will likely be available in the offseason. If the Mets are contenders they will need a solid bullpen, but that doesn't mean that one can't be built without Bobby Parnell.
Again, to me this comes back to the lineup and rotation. The Mets can keep Parnell and Murphy and have a strong offense (your lineup) and strong pitching or the can trade them, keep Sundergaard, and have a strong lineup and ELITE rotation. I don't think that I can overstate how donating the Mets could be with three flame throwing RHP, Jon Niese, and another starter. If my choice is btw Parnell/Murphy and Thor, I choose Thor.
As far as my latest plan, I don't exactly have one. I've always looked at the potential Next Mets lineup in terms of needs and then finding a basket of players to choose from to fill those spots. Adding a couple players from the combination of Choo, Ellsbury, Gordon, Ethier, Tulo, Stanton, Morneau, etc. will do just fine. I liked your lineup. I think Choo would be a great leadoff fit and I like him better in a corner OF spot. Beltran returning on a 2 year deal could be great - he'll get to come back and the Mets get someone to hold down the fort until 2016 when Nimmo should be ready. This is my "Alex Gordon" slot, but if the Mets can fill it with Beltran and without trading prospects it's all the better.
I think Tulo would be a perfect addition to this team, I just don't know what it might take to get him. I'm not sold on the Ike Davis recovery yet and I could see him as being a major part of a trade package for Tulo. Obviously Murphy wouldn't be in my plans at 2B but I'd scour around and see who might be available (Jed Lowrie? Kolten Wong?). Finally, I don't see Lagares as a full-time player.
Unknown - I can't see Ellsbury getting paid as a power hitter off of one season two years ago. I think all of MLB realizes that was an outlier year for him.
I'm sure most of MLB does, I doubt Boras does. And it only takes one team to bite on the chance that he will hit 20+ HR and bite. Could be wrong, but my philosophy is to never underestimate Boras. Plus if that year is a complete outlier he's not that great of a player, he has a 106 OPS+ with that season.
I definitely have changed my mind regarding signing Ellsbury. Much rather have Choo at a corner, more durable, high obp and generally has had more power.
I think that Murph is more expendable then Parnell. There really aren't many closers playing as well as Parnell's been since the middle of last year and I don't trust the projected free agent cast the next 2 years.
I like Thor as much as the next guys and I certainly would like to see him in the rotation. The thing is he's going to need more time to mature compared to where Wheeler and Montero are (he's about a year behind those two.)
I still think that Harvey, Wheeler, Niese Montero and Gee will be amont the best rotations anc you can trade Gee down the line when someone like Fulmer or Matz is ready in a about two years.
I'm also really starting to buy into Puello as a potential part of the future. I'm obviously worried about his possible suspension but he looks like a stud right now.
I would only consider trading Parnell and Murphy to Detroit and only if I get back Nick Castellanos and Danry Vasquez or Steven Moya from their farm system. We can replace Parnell with any one of Familia, Mejia or Leathersich. Second base can be handed to Wilmer Flores. Castellanos can be inserted in the outfield immediately once we trade Byrd at the trading deadline. Our farm system can be strengthen with outfield prospects Puello, Nimmo, Lupo, Bucerra, Ivan Wilson and Vasquez/Moya........
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/70872/the-case-for-trading-bobby-parnell?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
My top pick is for the Mets to get Castellanos for Parnell, but it's not to pencil him into a lineup. It's to package with Montero for a major lineup piece.
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