9/19/13

Reese Kaplan - "I Don't Give a Darn!" -- "Oh, that's our shortstop."

Abbott_and_Costello_9396While it’s a given that the Mets lineup has more holes than Swiss cheese, it’s entirely possible they are willing to go into 2014 with some combination of Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Josh Satin and Wilmer Flores at 1st base without looking to do an upgrade from outside the organization. Regardless of how you feel about the potential of any of these candidates, depressingly, they are far better than what passes for outfielders and shortstops on the Mets or in their upper minor league affiliates.

With limited funds to spend (Wilpon Family and Sandy Alderson lies notwithstanding), perhaps instead of dipping their toe into the expensive free agent pool they should be looking at top positional prospects from other organizations who might help the Mets. This list is not meant to be comprehensive, but just a glimpse of the many options out there who might cost less than trying to trade for established major leaguers like Elvis Andrus or Alex Gordon.

The Shortstops

The Arizona Diamondbacks seem committed to Didi Gregorius at SS and have a deal in place with Aaron Hill for 2B. That situation may leave Chris Owings out in the cold, but he won’t be chilly for long. In his most recent minor league campaign the 22 year old slugged 12 HRs, drove in 81, stole 20 bases and hit a robust .330 in AAA. Even accounting for some stat inflation due to the Pacific Coast League, those numbers are pretty staggering for a shortstop.

Cleveland is probably regrettably committed to Asdrubal Cabrera who has not matched his All-Star level output of a few years ago. Since he is in the midst of the long term contract, it’s possible for the Mets to inquire about top SS prospect Francisco Lindor. He’s considered a plus defender with great stolen base ability. He has no power but this past year between A and AA he hit .303 combined while playing at just 19 years of age.

Even more disappointing and harder to move is the $60 million contract of Starlin Castro, once thought to be Chicago Cubs’ long term answer to the shortstop position. He’s been in decline since inking that deal, and hot on his heals in AA is uber-prospect Javier Baez. He’s hit 37 HRs, 111 RBIs and batted .289 while stealing 20 bases. Disturbing is his 147 Ks, but what balances that out a bit is the fact that when he ascended to a higher level of competition in AA he actually performed better.

The Oakland A’s have a very underrated and capable shortstop in Jed Lowrie who is earning a paltry $2.4 million this year. Consequently they might be enticed to part with prospect Addison Russell who spent most of the year in A+ before jumping for a cup of coffee in AAA. He’s got power to the tune of 17 HRs and stole 21 bases as well.

After prying Dilson Herrera away from Pittsburgh as part of the Marlon Byrd trade, maybe the Bucs would entertain thoughts of allowing the Mets to reunite him with his double play partner, Alen Hanson. While his numbers are not eye popping, he did put up 8 HRs, 58 RBIs, 30 SBs while hitting .274 in A+/AA combined. He’s just 20 years old.

The Outfielders

The Los Angeles Dodgers would likely want to move the expensive Andre Ethier to break up the logjam they currently have in the outfield. Thus far there have been no takers. One of the stud prospects bubbling under the surface in AA this year is 21 year old lefty slugger Joc Pederson. He hit 22 HRs and stole 30 bases.

The Toronto Blue Jays are another team with a surplus in the outfield already. Despite spending prodigious amounts on new talent this year, they’re likely falling into the second division. One player highly regarded in their farm system is big right handed hitting Jake Marisnick who in 298 ABs this season hit 12 HRs and drove in 46 while batting .294. Of course, given what Noah Syndergaard produced this year and Travis d’Arnaud is expected to produce, they may not take Sandy Alderson’s call when R.A. Dickey delivered substantially less than Cy Young caliber pitching.

The Oakland A’s have a similar surplus in the outfield which might make prospect Michael Choice expendable in a change-of-scenery type of trade. After a monster year in 2011 when he slugged 30 HRs and drove in 82 while hitting a solid .285, he’s not replicated that power again (even while playing the Pacific Coast League this past season). However, with just 14 HRs to his credit, he still drove in 89 and batted .302.

A little further down the food chain is the 19 year old oddly named Venezuelan Rougned Odor playing for A+/AA affiliates of the Texas Rangers. Scouts rave about his power/speed combination, though at just 5’11” and 170 pounds he’s more likely going to shine for what he does on the basepaths. This past year he hit a combined .305 with 11 HRs, 78 RBIs and 32 SBs. The NY Post would have a field day with headlines if he flopped in the big leagues.

What prospect list would be complete without an obligatory nod to perpetual Tigers’ farmhand Nick Castellanos? Unlike others on this list, he doesn’t have great power and isn’t blessed with stolen base skills. All he does is hit. Once, for a period of 243 ABs he hit over .400. With an outfield that includes Torii Hunter, Austin Jackson and a platoon of Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo, he may be available in trade.

The Houston Astros have seemingly been a laughingstock even longer than have the Mets. This year they have the majors’ lowest payroll but ironically the highest profit. They seem to keep a blend of minimum wage guys throughout the lineup. They have in their system arguably the next Mike Trout (with the bat, anyway) in George Springer.  In his age 23 season in combined AA/AAA action he slugged 37 homers, drove in 108 while stealing 45 bases and hitting .303. The only red flag is his whopping 161 strikeouts. If you were the Astros and the Mets came knocking at your door offering up Noah Syndergaard as a starting point, would you even take the call?  

The St. Louis Cardinals may let Carlos Beltran walk as they have Alan Craig, John Jay and Matt Holliday to man the outfield for them. Consequently, one of their fast track prospects who stumbled a bit in AAA this year – Oscar Taveras – might be available for the right price. In 2012 he slugged 23 homers and drove in 94 at AA while batting .321. For his entire minor league career he’s hitting .320, though this past year his home run and RBI numbers were down considerably. However, at just age 21 there’s time to adjust.

4 comments:

vtmet said...

what inspired the Cubs to give Castro that kind of a contract? Mediocre power, poor success rate in steals, a ton of errors...Am I missing something?

Reese Kaplan said...

Second year in the bigs at the ripe old age of 21 he hit 10 HRs, 66 RBIs, swiped 22 bases and batted over .300 for the second time in his young career.

Herb G said...

Reese, you pose an interesting and thought provoking solution to the Mets offensive anemia. One problem I see, however, is that few clubs are willing to part with their top prospects unless they are using them to acquire high quality veterans to fill their "win now" needs. Prospect for prospect trades are not all that common. Witness the way we got Herrera, Black, d'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Wheeler. Besides, depending on prospects is far more risky than acquiring tried and tested veterans to fill those holes. (BTW, Marisnick is no longer with the Jays. He was one of the main chips that enabled Toronto to get Reyes, Johnson and Co. from Miami over the winter.)

My preferred alternative for filling our holes this off season is to acquire veteran players, either through free agency or via trade. I admit that my solution does not represent original thinking. I'll stand by it anyway.

For shortstop there aren't any quality FA's out there, (except perhaps Jhonny Peralta, who carries somme stigma of PEDs, and may return to Detroit) so if Sandy wants to upgrade that position, he will have to find a trade partner. Quality shortstops who may be had are Aybar, Andrus, Hardy, and maybe Tulowitzki.

The outfield hole is deep, but easier to fill since both free agents and trade options are more plentiful. If we sigh one or two of Ellsbury, Choo, Pence, Cruz, Beltran, or Byrd, we needn't go any further. If we get only one, we could try to obtain CarGo, Bautista, Gordon, Stanton, etc. etc.

If I were Sandy, I'd ride Davis at 1B to open the season, but I'd go out and get a replacement if Ike has another spring swoon in 2014. Last spring, when the Dodgers DFA'd Scott Van Slyke, I was hoping we would claim him, but alas, we passed. Now I see his slash line at AAA Albequerque this year was .348/.479/.627/1.107. Of ourse, his glove is sub par, which may be the reason no one claimed him, but this 6'5", 250 lb. ox sure can hit.

Reese said...

Why wouldn't a Flores for SS/OF type of trade work if a partner needed a 3Bman?