10/30/13

Why The Mets Need An Angel In Their Outfield

avatar - angelThe Hot Stove season in baseball is when the craziest trade ideas are bandied about by fans, media, and the teams as well. No other sport has this kind of offseason. It’s like everyone is taking their baseball card collection and swapping cards with other kids in the neighborhood. This is the time of year when to creative baseball minds anything is possible-the Mets actually could acquire Dustin Pedroia AND Clay Buchholz for Dillion Gee, Wilmer Flores, and prospects like Rafael Montero and Cesar Puello. Remote as a possibility a trade like this is, during the Hot Stove season it makes perfect sense! Hope springs eternal for baseball fans as the last of the leaves fall and we return to colder days and longer nights.

So in the spirit of the season I’m going to entertain my own baseball trade fantasy right now. A trade where the Mets a) solve their OF power outage, acquire a veteran lefty hurler to lead the staff and bring a 2B to more than make up for the one traded away. Yes, in the scenario, Daniel Murphy would wear a Halo on his hat in 2014. Also joining him as Angels would be Dillion Gee, Rafael Montero, Wilmer Flores, and one or two prospect bullpen arms du jour.

Who would the Mets acquire in this scenario? Well, this is what the Mets 2014 opening day line-up would look like:

1b-Ike Davis
2b-Howie Kendrick
SS-Stephen Drew or Ruben Tejada
3b-David Wright
C-Travis d’Araund
LF-Josh Hamilton
CF-Juan Lagares
RF-Marlon Byrd
P-C.J. Wilson

The Mets would acquire Kendrick and Wilson in addition to Hamilton. The most logical reason the Angels would make this trade would be two words-Mike Trout. The Angels would like to lock up Trout long-term and avoid the luxury tax penalty. Also, it’s an aging team saddled with the albatross contracts of Pujols, Hamilton, Vernon Wells, and to the lesser degree Wilson. The Mets wouldn’t have to pay full-price on Hamilton because the Angels would just be glad to shed even ½ or 2/3 of his contract. They could also take on only part of the Kendrick and Wilson contracts as well.

The Angels, looking for starting pitching, bullpen arms and an upgrade at 3b, add two starters to replace Wilson, bring in Murphy as a cheaper option to Kendrick, and even an unproven 22 year old Flores would be a huge offensive improvement over the Green-Jiminez-Nelson trio at 3B. The Angels bullpen was a horror show last season so the couple of young relief arms the Mets include help to shore up the Angel ‘pen for 2014 and beyond.

This trade makes the Mets older with Hamilton (33 in May), Kendrick (31 in July), and Wilson (33) but with that age also comes the wisdom of post-season experience. The Mets are a young team, with top position prospects like Smith, NImmo and Herrera still at least three years away, so adding three thirtysomething players makes them competitive to till the prospects develop in the way the Mets hope.

Hamilton is streaky, and his numbers declined sharply playing in a larger park last season, though he bounced back with a strong August and September. But slotted between Wright and Davis, even the threat of what he can do would affect how teams pitch to both of them. The sad fact is that even the pedestrian .250-21-79-.739 OPS with a 1.5 WAR numbers Hamilton posted in 2013 would’ve paced the Mets team which closed out 2013. Still, you’re talking about adding an elite-level player who in 2012 posted a slash line .285-43-128, so even a mediocre season falling somewhere between his 2012-2013 performance is a huge shot in the arm for the Mets anemic offense.

His acquisition would also increase attendance. When he’s at his best, Hamilton is the type of player people pay to see. His monstrous HR’s could become a staple of the Citi Field Jumbotron in the coming years…or he could be another Jason Bay. At this point, the Mets, Alderson especially, can’t afford not to roll the dice, on a proven power bat, regardless of injury or performance issues.

For this deal to work out, the Angels would have to eat a fair amount of Hamilton’s contract and a portion of Wilson and Kendricks as well. The question is-how far would the Angels go in that direction?

But this trade would be about more than Hamilton. The other two players who complete the deal both add important elements to make the Mets contenders in 2014. Kendrick and Wilson would bolster infield defense and already strong rotation, respectively. With two lefties in tow, the Mets rotation would line-up something like this:

SP1-Wilson L
SP2-Wheeler R
SP3-Niese L
SP4-SP 5-some combination of Harang, Dice K, Meijia and any other arms they acquire until Thor starts throwing his hammer at Citi-Field mid-summer of 2014.

Even with question marks at the 4 and 5 spots, the Mets top three would be a formidable trio for batters to face, especially when you have two lefties up there. The Braves hit .239 with a .701 OPS vs L in 2013, while the Nats didn’t fare much better-.239 and an OPS of .674.

As for Kendrick, he regularly flirts with .300 every year, is a defensive upgrade over Murphy at 2b and brings a nice speed/hitting combination to the position that is equal to and exceeds “Murph.” Most importantly, he is less prone to those head-scratching running mistakes, like trying to steal 3B with two out, than Murphy as well.

As I stated the Mets can’t afford to sit still in 2014. A competitive team that challenges for a WC is the only thing that will ease the further erosion of a disillusioned fanbase and a continued free fall in Citi Field attendance. It’s also put up or shut of time for our GM. So if he, and his lieutenants want to be around beyond 2014 the former Marine better coming out firing this offseason.

This trade may just be the Hot Stove daydream of a Mets fan but if the team wants to avert another lackluster season of subpar on-field performance they’d better have something similar up their sleeves.

3 comments:

Rev. Al said...

I love the hot stove hope ,as I make out a 1000 line-ups, I like yours, with Hamilton helping Wright. I am not sure about Davis? And would switch Flores for Ike.

Michael S. said...

A move for Hamilton would be interesting...I would maybe put him at 1B and look to acquire another OF bat as well.

Herb G said...

I like your thinking outside the box, and the boldness of your move, but I'm not buying this trade. Murphy, Gee and Flores should certainly be considered trade bait this winter, but not for what you propose.

C.J. Wilson is fine and I'd love to use Murphy or Flores (who could solve the Halo's 3B problem) and Gee plus a minor league arm to get him, but I can't see the Angels dealing him when it is pitching that they need.

I am afraid that Josh Hamilton is not emotionally suited for the NY market. I wonder if his poor performance last year had anything to do with the pressure of the huge contract and of playing in the LA market. The Angels do have a glut of outfielders, and I would probably take Kole Calhoun or Peter Bourjos for the right deal, say deGrom and Germen, Hutchingson or Bradford, but I wouldn't guarantee either of them a starting job. I want more in the corners in 2014.

Howie Kendrick is a quality player, but he isn't a fit for us. I want EYJ at 2B next season, and I think the FO does too. If there is a way to get Dipoto to part with Erick Aybar instead of Kendrick I'd be much more inclined to do a bigger package deal.

I would actually do Wilson, Aybar and Calhoun for Murphy, Gee, deGrom, Tejada, Germen and Cessa. If the Angels held out to include Bourjos instead of Calhoun, I'd remove Cessa from the package.