6/27/14

Ernest Dove - The Curious Case of Wilmer Flores.



  So, the young man who seemingly has spent the better part of the past year or so looking over his shoulder (hence the pic choice) has one again been pushed aside by the Mets organization.

  At this point, with Ike Davis gone to Pittsburgh, Wilmer Flores has pretty much become the most fascinating hitter (in my opinion) on the 40 man roster.  Fascinating on so many different levels.

  As I've written about before, Wilmer Flores was a top flight prospect (young prospect) who started his professional career back in 2008.  And, well, pretty much since he became a professional hitter, he  has done exactly that....... hit.  Since 2008, and with stops throughout the Mets minor league system, Wilmer has pretty much come close to the same type of steady numbers. He's pretty much been a .280+ BA guy, with a .350ish OBP, with a decent amount of homers (high of 18 in 2012 with combo play at St. Lucie and Bingo) and RBIs (86 for the 51s).

  Then, of course, the once 16 year old kid apparently frankenstein'd himself out of the shortstop position in the organization.  So, what to do.  Well, he played some third base, which would have been great, had the organization he was playing for not currently have, and extend a lifelong contract, to its major league teams captain at the same position. So, on goes plan B, play him at second base.  Which is fine, other then the fact that the organization he is playing for has already spent the past few years fitting another high hitting/no position playing guy at that same position in Daniel Murphy.

  So now what?  Well, maybe its time to look further into some numbers.  I think we've all learned from experience that numbers, and projections of number, especially from the minors to the majors, can be useless, but I've got nothing but time here, soooooooooooooooo.  Daniel Murphy is 29 years old.  He plays 'adequate' defense at second base.  He's been healthy (played 161 games last year, pretty much on pace for over 150 this year), but..................... he's never hit more then 13 homers in a season, and never more then 78 RBIs. And he has a career .290+ BA. 

  Meanwhile, Wilmer Flores, who will be turning 23 years old in August, has pretty much put up those kinds of exact numbers, consistently, at ever level in this organization. And........... wait for it........ makes a fraction of what Murphy makes in yearly salary these days.

  Now, again, Daniel Murphy has been the best hitter on this team (outside of 2013 Wright and Marlon Byrd, and recently hot hitting Grandy), but that's not the point I am trying to make.  I'm also not saying that the obvious decision is the trade/let go of Murphy, and take our chances with Flores at shortstop.  I'm simply staring at some numbers.  You know, the kind of thing that Sandy Alderson apparently loves doing himself.
  And, as far as numbers put up at the major league level, it really doesn't make much sense.  Flores, since briefly coming up for a début in late 2013, has either been hurt, or has played about once a week, so his numbers are pointless to overanalyze and critique, and project out to full year numbers. So I remain curious.

  Ike Davis was given his chances, due to draft status, power and brief numbers put up.  Daniel Murphy earned his chances, after continuously hitting over .300 whenever he played, to earn his spot.  Travis d'Arnoud is once again back and being given the 'everyday player' label, despite hitting under .200 ever since he got here, because of his minor league success and 'projected' positive future numbers.  Again, so goes the curious case of Wilmer Flores.  Flores hits, Flores does not strike out  a lot, Flores is young, and Flores is under team control.  However, in the case of Wilmer Flores, he doesn't get faith put into him.  Again, Ike and Duda have the love of power on their side. Murphy always had the hard nosed, versatile contact hitting label to him, and d'Arnoud, quite honestly, cost this organization a beloved CY Young Award winner, so his talent and projection carries that extra weight with him.  But what about Wilmer?

  Given his age, and status under team control, the team can simply continue to do whatever they want with him.  Although, the organization itself actually made things more complicated.  Not only did the Mets technically screw with Ruben Tejada by having Flores go back to shortstop, and be rushed back to the majors in that position, but the Mets also just recently promoted a middle infielder in Matt Reynolds, and still have another one in Danny Muno, currently playing in Viva Las Vegas.  They also already have enough 'older' first base prospects in Vegas, so once again, the curious Mr. Flores doesn't really have a position to slide into while back in Vegas.

  I guess, if it were up to me, for 2014, I would make Flores this years Daniel Murphy (you know, the guy they did all this mess with a few years ago).  I would keep Flores on the 25 man.  I would play him at all 4 infield positions, giving everyone rest, whenever.  No point in worrying about his defense. He supposedly can't play anywhere that well anyway, so simply take your chances in each 9 inning game that the ball doesn't come his way that often, if you really that worried. At least, this way, in 2014, he can get enough at bats for the Mets to truly evaluate exactly what they have here.

  Otherwise, the only other option, barring an unfortunate injury, is to leave him in Vegas for the rest of the year.  If so, he needs to play everyday, so one of the other two named prospects has to sit. And then, he needs to either be traded, or maybe take the place of whoever else eventually gets moved, or at least frustrated enough to play themselves out of the lineup at the big club.............

  Either way, I remain a big Flores fan.  Unfortunately, at this point, I think I'm more a fan of an underdog, rather then a fan of true talent at this point, because Flores quite honestly hasn't shown all that much at the major league level, consistently, to earn whatever it is he is finally trying to earn with this organization.  I wish him luck. And may the curiosity not kill this cool cat.
 

8 comments:

John Carroll said...

It's not really that curious. Wilmer Flores was an Omar guy, and Sandy has been doing nothing but getting rid of Omar's guys since he got here. If Sandy had signed Flores, or traded for Flores, he'd be playing every day now. There's no other reason why EY gets so much playing time despite being awful at the one thing Sandy supposedly puts the most stock into - getting on base.

Mack Ade said...

John -

I have followed baseball for a long time and I simply can't figure out what you have to do to get your name on the 25-man of this team.

EYJ is a sparkplug that misfires. he simply isn't good enough to be the kind of leadoff hitter/runner the Mets need... and the kind Sandy needs to rid himself of the guilt and burden of allowing Jose Reyes to leave this team.

He doesn't fit under any scenario. Curtis Granderson should be your every day right fielder... Juan Lagares should be your every day center fielder. That leaves left field to be platooned.Chris Young is a better (power) option as a RHH and Bobby Abreu is a better LHH option... this leaves Kirk to come next and Campbell to backup Tejada and offer another outfield option.

Mack Ade said...

One more thing...

EYJ is a perfect example of a player that would never be on the 25-man squad of teams like LAD, Detroit, St. Louis, NYY etc.

The Mets 25-man have a bunch of them.

Tom Brennan said...

Hey Mack

Perhaps the powers-that-be feel that there is less downside risk in playing Tejada, now that he is playing steadily, rather than Flores. If so, as soon as they start to slip out of contention, Tejada should sit and Flores should come back and play SS every day, unless Reynolds surges into the spot. Flores has a very high upside offensively. From May til mid-August last year he hit for high average, power, and drove in a ton of runs as a 21 year old.

I still think Wilmer's upside for this team is high. If d'Arnaud hits, and Flores hits as I believe he would playing every day, this whole team would hit better - pressure would be lessened on the remaining guys. People cite Ruben's on base %, but a lot of that is being pitched around with the pitcher up next, and it works. He's been to the plate around 225 times and on via hits and walks 76 times, with a paltry 17 runs and 16 RBIs. He is a liability. He is good enough to lose.

Take a risk with Wilmer - he may be good enough to win.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

Reynolds should hire you as his campaign manager.

Did anyone ever consider that the Mets may be trying to showcase Tejada?

Steve from Norfolk said...

I know the thought of this makes everyone ill, but my opinion is that Flores is going to replace Murphy at 2nd when Murph gets traded, either at the deadline or offseason. If you noticed, that's where he played his first game back in Vegas. The Giants have an excellent SS - Brandon Crawford. We could throw in Tejada, and get back a prospect or two. Look at Crawford's stats - he'd be worth it. He hits like Murph, but with more power. Fielding is just above ML average.

Steve from Norfolk said...

If I wasn't clear, I was talking about a Murphy trade in my post above.

Tom Brennan said...

Nah, Mack, not Reynolds' campaign manager, I'm replacing Boras as his agent!