7/30/14

Morning Report – July 30th – Closer, Lucas Duda, John Lannan, MLB Prospect List



One of the toughest decisions that’s going to have to be made in 2015 is who will be the closer. Under normal situations, it’s the incumbent’s job regardless of length of injury, but it’s hard right now to imagine the Mets removing the electricity, showmanship, and pizzazz of what’s coming out of Jenrry Mejia these days.

Mets soon to be all-star catcher Travis d’Arnaud said it best: "When a guy has command like that it’s fun, especially someone in the ninth inning. Most closers have one-two pitches but with four pitches it just makes him that much harder to hit."
We talk all the time about the potential of the Mets rotation, but 2015 could also be the end of our search for a top bullpen.  Vic Black, Rafael Montero, Jeurys Familia, Parnell, and Mejia looks like makings of a playoff bound baseball team.



1B Lucas Duda will be under team control for three more seasons. He’s currently producing around a .500 slugging percentage and seems to be single-handedly keeping this team in the race for a wild card slot. This ironically fits in perfectly with the time period needed for Savannah 1B Dominic Smith to work his way through the system and be ready to take over the job from Duda in 2018. But, wait a minute. Are we sure this is what we want? I mean, Duda is already producing in the 25/75 range and he’s just getting going. More importantly, all Smith is right now is all-projection and even less power.

The Mets seem to have missed the boat with Daniel Murphy and Dillon Gee on producing the team-friendly long term contract like the one Jonathan Niese has. Wouldn’t it be prudent to try and do the same with Duda?

I’m curious to discuss this today.




Don't laugh at the return of SP John Lannan to the AAA-Las Vegas rotation,

This has been a plan in the making every since he was DFA's and asked for some extended time off so he could go contemplate his navel, or something like that.

Well, the plan always was for him to quietly come back and rehab himself through the organization only to settle into Vegas to await when the young, talented arms, both in Queens and Nevada will first have to be limited and then eventually shut down.

So far so good... Lannon pitched six scoreless innings with  1-K, and 1-BB.


I was very excited to see five Mets made the MLB.com Top 100 prospect list that was revised this past week. Noah Syndergaard (#13), Kevin Plawecki (#67), Brandon Nimmo (#68), Michael Conforto (#86), and Dominic Smith (#88), which came to 5% of the entire list (Travis d’Arnaud graduated from this list and Rafael Montero fell below the Top 100). I’m particularly impressed with the first showing of Plawecki and the respect being paid to Conforto.

You always think you have good talent but the proof of that is when your peers and the baseball gods write about your players. This is the best the Mets have looked on this list in years and represents a wonderful future. Next up… Steve Matz.


Well, you can't win them all...  Mets now 14-8 in last 22 games.

Every loss makes the difficulty of making the playoffs harder, especially since most of the teams with better records are playing even better than the Mets as the season continues.

The Mets only hope may be to win their own division, something that was once considered impossible, but Miami's wins against the Nationals are keeping the Mets within range for a run for it.




Dan-Chat –

            Comment From THE IRON SHIEK - Jacob deGrom the real?

Dan Szymborski: I’m increasingly inclined to think that he is. The Mets are such an interesting team. Like I said in a conversation with a friend recently, the Mets really have all the pieces they need, the question is when they’ll figure out how to put them all together. With Terry Collins and the Wilpons, they’re like a guy who bought some badass furniture, but some assembly’s required and the instructions are all in old norse or something.




Metsiac -  
What’s the story with RP Akeel Morris? He's totally dominating the SAL. Why hasn't he been talked about or promoted?

Another question---How does Matt Koch pronounce his last name? Does it rhyme with "Watch" or "Smoke"?

            Mack – Hey, Bill.

            The keeping of Morris in Savannah is a mystery, as is the lack of promotion of starters like John Gant and Robert Gsellman. My guess is it’s a combination of being blocked by the talent in the system and the fact that Savannah would like to win back-to-back championships this year. This fact is also why most people speculate Michael Conforto winding up here before the season ends.


            As for Koch, it’s smoke.





Minor Moves –

Lowest Percentage of Swings Put in Play- July 2014: Jacob deGrom  29%, Clayton Kershaw  31%, Cole Hamels  31%... over his last seven starts (46IP): ERA: 1.37 FIP: 1.92 xFIP: 2.88 K-BB%: 19.7%... Kansas City released C Jesus Flores… from Baseball America: Triple-A Las Vegas catcher Kevin Plawecki has been diagnosed with a mild case of vertigo, which necessitated a trip to the disabled list. He hit .234/.321/.404 with two homers in 15 games for the 51s, following a midseason promotion from Double-A Binghamton, though he played only once since appearing in the Futures Game… 3B Nick Evans joins 3B Zach Lutz on the Ratuken Golden Eagles in the Japanese Pacific League…


9 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Duda I would give another month to see how lastingly real it is with him before really considering that sort of contract, but I believe it will be lasting. I will add that thanks to one of my brothers, I got a front row seat halfway between 1B and foul pole on Monday, and being pretty close up, I observed pre-game a very relaxed Duda. I think that is another sign of big things coming from him. I am nonetheless happy they sat Duda and played Campbell vs. Hamels last night. Smart move, even if there was no impact on the outcome.

I also observed up close how good Granderson can be with his teammates. His personality and professionalism has to rub off positively, and I could see him with Duda prior to the game doing little, natural banter-type things that would help make Duda feel like he is important to this team, one of its star players. I was wrong earlier in the year - Grandy is no Jason Bay.

Bob Sugar said...

Dilson Herrera being left off the MLB TOP 100 prospect list is very questionable.

Anonymous said...

I've seen Matt Koch's name pronounced as "Cook" in many places. Not sure what the correct pronunciation but that seems to be the consensus.

Next up, has to be Herrera and I agree him being left off the top 100 list is a bit of a slight, I read somewhere he was the 11th rated 2B, so it's possible of one of the top 10 age out (reach mlb rookie ab limit) he might work his way onto the list. Then next up is Steven Matz!

Also, in terms of Akeel Morris, my guess is that, one, they want to give him some experience in the closers role since he was pitching in middle relief prior to Robert Coles promotion, two, they want to keep him back to win the SALLY league championship and three, most importantly, hide him so he's not scooped up in the rule V draft this December since he will need to be protected and added to the 40 man roster or risk being another teams property. You don't typically see a guy in Low -A get grabbed, so leaving him there for the duration of this season is shrewd and next season you can move him quickly and see how he responds to the upper levels to determine if he's a future piece or not, which it believe he is, but how many people have we seen dominate in Savannah that don't own out?

The Closer

Reese Kaplan said...

Dillon Gee would be foolish to sign a contract until he rights himself.

Daniel Murphy is still likely to be gone, so I don't see the reason to pay the lawyers.

Duda? Now that one is interesting. He'll likely get in the $3 to $4 million range in arbitration, doubling what he makes this year. I can see he would get expensive in a hurry. He might be worth pursuing.

Michael S. said...

If Duda is for real he makes Dom an interesting trade chip.

Anonymous said...

In 3 more years though....Duda will be 31 years which is a prime age to be a trade candidate.

If Dom Smith develops the way he should he should easily be able to replace his production with improved batting average and defense....and potentially be a 5 WAR player.

Tom Brennan said...

Hey Chris

If Duda does that well, hopefully the NL adopts the DH by 2018, then we can play both Duda and Smith. No idea if the NL is considering the DH at all. I for one would like it - more offense.

As far as risking leaving Akeel off the 40 man, it seems very risky. Guy has a 0.90 ERA in 2013 and 2014, with 45 hits and 132 Ks in 91 innings. I'd think some team would snatch him.

Michael S. said...

But, Duda can be a force for the next 5-7 years and Smith could help us land another legitimate MLB hitter.

We'd have plenty of time to find another up and coming young replacement.

Hobie said...

An extended “Neise-like” contract this winter for Lucas makes a lot of sense to me. For all of Dom Smith’s promise, obviously it’s still early to project with great confidence. And if he does turn out to be the next Tony Gwynn (I fantasize like that; Dilson H. = Joe Morgan) Duda becomes so much more tradable than a FA-in-waiting.