11/21/17

Hot Stove - 11-21-17

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Mets and Tigers discussing possible trade for 2B Ian Kinsler...
$11mil in 2018... 9 straight years with positive DRS numbers at second... 2017: .725-OPS... 91/wRC+  - Kinsler would be a great one year fix until Luis Guillorme becomes ready in 2019

Former 2013 1.1 Draft Pick, RHP Mark Appel, DFA'dby the Phillies... 17 starts last year for AAA-Lehigh Valley: 5.27. 1.76. 


Trade:  Yankees send RHP Ronald Herrera to Texas for LHP Reiver Sanmartin. The Herrera move was designed to clear room on the Yankees' 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft. 

    Herrera's best 2017 numbers were at the AA level: 9-starts, 8-0, 1.13, 0.82

    Samartin rose to A ball in 2017: 7-G, 6-ST, 4-1, 2.62

Toronto outright former top outfield prospect, Harold Ramirez. The 23-year old Ramirez hit .260/.320/.358 in AA ball last season.

Cleveland DFA's RHRP Dylan Baker... 2017: AA - 13-G, 2.84

Trade: Yankees  trade IB Garrett Cooper and LHP Caleb Smith to Miami for RHP Michael King and International signing bonus pool money

    2017 - 

    Cooper - AAA: .366, 17-HR, 82-RBI

    Smith - AAA: 18-G, 9-1, 2.39, 1.05

    King - A:  26-G, 25-starts, 3.14, 1.09
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Tom Brennan - FIRST, YA GOTTA SHOW UP

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Tom Brennan - FIRST, YA GOTTA SHOW UP

I hate tables, like the one below - I went to edit the table in Excel, and when I returned it from Excel, my article was gone.  POOF!  So I will try to recreate the concept briefly.


There is much discussion about the Mets' needing to stay within a spending budget.  We as Mets fans, all we hear is that we're working within a budget, that there isn't much to spend, and how should we spend our paltry ducats on middle of the road players while other teams splurge on the high profile guys.

What about the revenue side, though? 

Simply put, winning teams win more games.  An 80 game winner will, all other things being equal, draw fewer fans than if it were a 90 win team.  A 90 win team will , all other things being equal, draw fewer fans than if it were a 95 win team.

Fewer tickets get sold at big discounts when the product is more in demand, and concessions and food and beverage sales also ascend northward.

TV ratings go up too, as fans love to watch, and that drives ad revenues.

Spending well and generously can have an ameliorating impact on revenues, franchise value and the like.  And, of course, if the team makes the playoffs and gives it a nice run, that is Jackpot City for ownership.

In the table below, we see that the Yanks averaged 36,048 fans, while the big market Mets averaged a middle of the pack 30,563.  At home, the disparity is more like 9,000 fans per game at the House that Ruth Rebuilt, all of whom spend $$ on tickets, food, brews, etc.

What would a return to health for our pitchers and Cespedes, and some dandy, even if costly acquisitions do for the Mets?  What if there were even 5,000 more fannies in seats for Mets home games because last year's 70 win team becomes 2018's 92 win team?  Revenues would go up, what, $40 - $50 million? Maybe more? 

My call?  Go for the wins, spend the real money for real quality players, and buy your team a playoff lotto ticket that you might actually get to cash in, you low budget owners. 

The minor league system won't get it done for you in 2018, because you, well, didn't draft all that good in 2011-17, so spend the money, Sonny.

Also in the table below, what you see is primarily that the teams that drew more than the Mets were big market, strong teams, and smaller market, really strong teams.  Below the Mets?  Mostly lousy teams in big markets and not-very-good teams in smaller markets.  Owners, let's get Mets' attendance into the top 5 - get some real players - by spending some real money.

OK, I'm signing off before my article vanishes again.  Have a great day, and SHOW UP.




2017 Attendance Home Road Overall
RK TEAM GMS TOTAL AVG GMS  AVG  GMS AVG
1 LA Dodgers 81 3,765,856 46,492 81 33,579 162 40,035
2 St. Louis 81 3,447,937 42,567 81 31,324 162 36,945
3 San Francisco 81 3,303,652 40,785 81 31,376 162 36,081
47 NY Yankees 79 3,146,966 39,835 81 32,354 160 36,048
5 Toronto 81 3,203,886 39,554 81 29,912 162 34,733
6 Chicago Cubs 81 3,199,562 39,500 81 34,460 162 36,980
7 LA Angels 81 3,019,583 37,278 81 27,663 162 32,471
8 Colorado 81 2,953,650 36,464 81 30,575 162 33,520
9 Boston 81 2,917,678 36,020 81 31,563 162 33,792
10 Milwaukee 81 2,558,722 31,589 81 30,530 162 31,060
11 Washington 81 2,524,980 31,172 81 29,967 162 30,570
12 Texas 81 2,507,760 30,960 81 26,699 162 28,829
13 Atlanta 81 2,505,252 30,929 79 29,230 160 30,090
14 NY Mets 80 2,460,622 30,757 81 30,372 161 30,563
15 Houston 81 2,403,671 29,674 79 27,678 160 28,689
16 Detroit 81 2,321,599 28,661 80 26,725 161 27,699
17 Kansas City 80 2,220,370 27,754 80 28,458 160 28,106
18 San Diego 81 2,138,491 26,401 81 32,161 162 29,281
19 Seattle 81 2,135,445 26,363 80 26,797 161 26,579
20 Arizona 81 2,134,375 26,350 81 31,939 162 29,144
21 Minnesota 80 2,051,279 25,640 80 27,797 160 26,719
22 Cleveland 81 2,048,138 25,285 80 27,729 161 26,499
23 Baltimore 81 2,028,424 25,042 81 29,457 162 27,250
24 Philadelphia 79 1,905,354 24,118 81 30,940 160 27,571
25 Pittsburgh 81 1,919,447 23,696 81 32,633 162 28,164
26 Cincinnati 81 1,836,917 22,677 81 32,094 162 27,386
27 Chicago White Sox 79 1,629,470 20,626 81 28,443 160 24,583
28 Miami 81 1,651,997 20,395 80 29,160 161 24,750
29 Oakland 80 1,475,721 18,446 80 29,466 160 23,956
30 Tampa Bay 80 1,253,619 15,670 81 29,898 161 22,800









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11/20/2017 Winter League Results | Carrillo Named MPL All-Star, Rain Continues in Dominican Republic

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Arizona Fall League
- Season Completed November 18th
(Recap can be found here.)



Mexican Pacific League All-Star Game
- Estrellas de Norte 3 - 1 Estrellas de Sur
  • C Xorge Carrillo: 2 for 2

Venezuelan Winter League
- Caribes de Anzoategui 2 - 8 Cardenales de Lara
Navegantes del Magallanes 4 - 6 Bravos de Margarita


Dominican Winter League
Estrellas Orientales vs Aguilas Cibaenas [PPD- Rain]
- Tigres del Licey 3 - 1 Gigantes del Cibao



Roberto Clemente Puerto Rican League

Side Note: Regular Season will start January 8th, 2018.

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Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2014

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Tom Brennan- DRAFT DUDS 2014

In scanning the Mets drafts' top 10 rounds' selections since 2008, there are DUDS (i.e., puzzling to baffling picks) and DUDES (guys whose picks, given the rounds they were picked in, make the Mets look smart.  

(Please note that when I characterize a player as a dud, it is the Mets who selected him that I am criticizing, not the player, as I believe there had to be better power hitting or power pitching candidates available for draft selection than who they picked).

2014's DUDES LIST - TAKE 5:

First round pick MICHAEL CONFORTO is the authentic article, when healthy.  This pick was a "DUDE" bullseye.  I won't elaborate; if ya don't know about this guy, google him!

4th rounder EUDOR GARCIA looked good as a potentially legit stick man and 3B until he couldn't stay out of the PED candy jar and then left the Mets for Mexico in 2017.  All that is a puzzler, but early on he looked like a DUDE pick.  I won't penalize the Mets here, his was a good pick that went awry.

7th rounder, towering lefty BRAD WIECK, was dealt to San Diego by the Mets in 2015.  He is in my draft DUDE category because any guy with 332 Ks in 249 minor league innings is worthy to elect and try to refine.  He walks a few too many, but could do some major league damage in 2018.

8th rounder, 1B DASH WINNINGHAM, was a very logical power pick for that round. He's stalled in Columbia, hitting in the mid .230s each of the past 2 seasons.  But his 75 doubles, 42 HRs, and 226 RBIs in 1327 ABs offer hope that he could accelerate as a 23 year old slugger in 2018. 
DUDE PICK.

10th rounder, LHRP KELLY SECREST, has done quite well for a 10th rounder: 11-12, 3.26 with 187 Ks in 182 IP.  Seven innings so far in AAA...possible future MLB lefty reliever.  In round 10, that is DUDE-quality picking.

DUD PICKS?  I count 5:

Can't criticize the Mets' 2nd round pick, except to note they did not have one!! Losing the second rounder for a washed up Michael Cuddyer was a DUD move.

3rd rounder MILTON RAMOS, SS, might be a good fielder, but he is another guy who makes Ruben Tejada look like A-Rod with the bat.  DUD PICK.  Now an Oriole farm laddie.

5th rounder JOSH PREVOST, RP, missed 2017 with an arm injury but only fanned 125 in 189 IP before then, while going 11-14, 3.65.  Hitters have gone .289 against him.  While he is big, his stuff is not big enough...DUD PICK.

6th rounder, C TYLER MOORE, is .211/.291/.288 in over 200 games.  Only 64 at bats above Full A.  Gotta pick better hitters, even if they are catchers, in round 6...DUD PICK.

9th rounder, 1B MICHAEL KATZ, put up good RBI numbers (101 in 719 at bats), but not much pop (.335 slug %) and 248 Ks.  Not a terrible pick, but I will go with DUD here.  He was released after 2016.


There were 3 very nice quality picks below the top 10, IMO:

17th rounder and LHRP DAVE ROSEBOOM had a dismal, injury ended season in AAA in 2017 after a brilliant 2016 AA campaign.  Hopefully, a healthy Roseboom will rebound sharply in 2018 on his way to the bigs.

29th rounder MATT BLACKHAM is a HARD THROWER who probably slipped to the 29th round due to his size.  After his obligatory TJS in 2016, he had a brilliant relief season with A ball Columbia: 1.42 ERA and almost 13 Ks per 9 IP for the reliever.  Matt - fast track to majors? We will see in 2018.

40th rounder DALE BURDICK is a young, hard hitting IF with strong defensive fundamentals. His bat needs work, but I think we will see young Burdick really blossom with more playing time in 2018.  Already reached AAA at age 21, even if for just 11 ABs.  .217/.310/.369 in A, AA, and AAA in 2017, but remember, he was only 21 in 2017.

Overall, I give this draft a B-, as any draft that gets us a talent like a Conforto starts out with at least a C grade; I hope, though, that the Mets of Queens will not draft any more defensive IFs and catchers in the first 10 rounds who are small in stature and/or pop gun bats and/or having trouble breaking a pane of glass with their fastball.

NEXT ARTICLE: 

THE DRAFTS OF 2015-17. DUDES?  OR DUDS?








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