Tom Brennan – PROSPECT RANKINGS
AND MY PROSPECT # 1
Normally, the
writers for a site like this might wait a while to publish articles ranking its
prospects in the off season.
But this season has devolved
into a train wreck, with many injuries and poor, uneven performance. For instance, 146 games in, the team's ERA is 5.02, when a pre-season poll of most fans might have targeted the team's ERA at around 3.50 - what a disaster.
So I decided to start this prospect ranking analysis sooner.
Not to quell
reader enthusiasm, I have to disclose that Bleacher Reports recently ranked the
Mets’ farm system 27th out of 30 teams, with ZERO Tier 1 prospects –
and that was after acquiring half a dozen hard throwing relievers in salary
dump trades of several of the team’s quality, uninjured veterans to cut
payroll.
The Yankees,
whose system pretty recently produced current major league uber-power hitters Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, is nonetheless
ranked 3rd, with 7 Tier 1 prospects.
To say we are behind the 8 ball vs. them is an understatement.
So it is
what it is. Bad drafting (among other
things) leads to fewer elite prospects.
For this article
series, Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario
will have too many at bats to qualify as rookies, and are virtually guaranteed
to start 2018 on the Mets’ opening day roster, so they drop off the prospect
list.
Chris Flexen has really struggled after his
rushed promotion due to injuries, and he likely will exceed rookie pitching limits
also, because they need all live arms on deck.
So although he may well start 2018 in the minors, and perhaps stay there
most of the season to refine his repertoire to make it more hitter-resistant, I
will leave him out of this list too.
I will do 30
individual articles on my # 1 through # 30 prospects, and then do 4 more
articles addressing the # 31 through # 50 prospects 5 at a time.
So who is my
# 1 prospect going into 2018?
Peter Alonso.
The prodigiously pounding
1B played in High A and AA in 2017, after a great 2016 with Brooklyn was cut well
short by a broken hand and his early 2017 was interrupted by another broken hand
injury. Give me a break, will ya?
He scuffled
in 2017 in relatively few at bats - he was hitting .160 on June 18. Starting on June 19, once the rust was
shed, he put up the following awesome numbers the rest of the way in about half
a full season’s worth of games:
288 at bats,
95 hits (.330), 27 doubles, 1 triple, 16 homers, 63 RBIs.
Double those
#’s to equate to a full season and you get:
576 ABs, 190
hits, 54 doubles, 2 triples, 32 HRs, 126 RBIs, .330 avg., .597 slug %.
Wow. Can we have a few of those sorts of players, please?
Strikeouts
for him are in a decent range. Good.
Fielding is,
charitably, a work in progress – 19 career errors in 110 games at first base is
pretty poor, and has to be significantly improved. Painfully, he seems to be a first baseman
only as is Dominic Smith, so something will have to give by opening day 2019 at
the latest, unless one of the two shows a sudden propensity to play, say, 3rd
base.
But the Alonso
bat is producing average and power numbers like no Mets minor league bat since perhaps David
Wright. So Alonso is my # 1 Mets
prospect. You are entitled to be wrong
and disagree with me if you’d like!
12 comments:
Great another Met DH in waiting.....but wait the NL doesn't use the DH. Thomas could he play 3rd base haha. Isn't it fitting that our #1 prospect probably will be a trade chip as Dom Smith is looking like the real deal. Will ownership make Sandy pay for this gross ineptitude with the farm system with his job? It's hard to believe we played in the WS 2 years ago and when I look around at the top teams I see a gap in quality the size of the Grand Canyon and fear Sandy will still get to make the calls.
Gary, no argument from me. The Mets should have picked Bo Bichette, as he was not locked into the same position and ALONSO appears to be with Dom Smith.
ALONSO looked like a future MLB star. Bichette? Future superstar?
If we had no Dom Smith, you could flip a coin between ALONSO and Bichette. But we do have Dom Smith. A close reading of MLB rules shows you cannot playc2 first basemen simultaneously.
Cecchini had a much needed strong night. Dom Smith is HOT! Nimmo continues to impress.
Gavin had a couple of nice AB's, but at 2B he made Wilmer Flores look like Bobby Richardson. (Yes, Mack, I know it dates me.)
Hobie, I was out last night and missed Gavin in the field. That is very discouraging to hear from you, especially when his horrific error rates in 2015 and 2016 seemed to have improved a whole lot from late 2016 forward.
If he can't field league average level, I have real doubts that he could be more than a cup of coffee big leaguer, so I hope what you saw is not indicative of a long term defensive picture with him.
Exciting bat. I wonder if they'll start Alonso at AA or AAA next season. 19 errors in 110 games at 1B is pretty alarming, though it'd be fun to watch Keith tear his hair out for a few years watching him. There are a handful of guys to dream on in this system, but overall, it's pretty bad. I see another five year re-build coming.
Adam, we need to lose, lose, lose down the stretch and at least get the #5, #35, and #65 picks. Maybe it can be shorter than 5 years on team's rebuild then.
A lot will depend on to what extent Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, and Thor rebound. You could make a case for any of the 4 to be Comeback Player of the Year next season - maybe they can finish 1, 2, 3, 4. Highly wishful thinking, I know.
I do want to add, having watched replays of Cecchini's early single and double, is that both were off Dickey, and since he is clearly a non-traditional pitcher, I don't want to put too much weight on Gavin having 3 hits last night. Also, love that Smith is hitting, but he runs the bases like a 39 year old. Worrisome.
Out there: Would you swap Alonso for Evan Longoria (& his $87MM contract thru 2022)?
Hobie, that is a mighty interesting question. I think I would do that trade IF WE ARE SURE that Alonso cannot play 3B. If he can be an adequate 3B, I would not. Otherwise, yes, I think I would - we need to upgrade at 3B and we might all be surprised if Matz, Thor, Harvey and Wheeler all return to form next year and we have real hitters to back them up. Of course, Alonso's track record is a short one so far, and he hasn't played 3B. Only those who watch him daily would know how great he might become as a hitter. Even Michael Conforto who many thought was rushed to the bigs played 134 games in the minors before he was called up, which is slightly more than Alonso accomplished so far. This therefore might be more easily considered for a trade deadline 2018 trade, as we get to better see if Evan is (or is not) in decline and how good Pete's bat really is (and if they put him at 3rd).
I'd be really skeptical of Pete handling 3rd. Jhoan Urena has been awful at 3rd, but almost errorless when he switched to first base. With Pete's high error rate at first, by comparison, how would a switch defensively by him to 3rd go? Likely not pretty anytime soon.
I'd just hope that Longoria, who will be 32 in 2018, would not be poised to begin a decline - he has tailed off from his great 2016.
Look guys it'll be AC at third as he's a 1 year deal and I must admit he's played it well to this point and not only don't I see management spending big $$$ on free agents what free agent would want to come here unless it's an overpay and that ain't happening.
Gary, you appear more right about Cabrera by the day.
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