12/29/17

Q and A - Do You Shoot For The Moon in the Outfield?



Reese Kaplan asks –


                        We are still waiting for a number of slots to be filled, including the fifth outfielder, be it a starter or someone in a platoon, or a simple utility role. Sandy says he's got $12mil left for the entire Hot Stove season. Do you shoot for the moon here and who would your choice be?


Michael Maar said - 

                    Given a constraint of only $12MM left to spend (which is ridiculous considering the Met payroll currently projects at about $120MM), I'd focus attention on Catcher.  I believe Travis d'Arnaud has had his chance, and that it's time to bring in an anchor to provide the solid defense, consistent bat, and leadership for the pitching staff from behind the plate that the Mets have lacked for a looong time.  Clear d'Arnaud's $2MM in the process, so now I have $14MM to spend and can bring in another P.


                   There aren't a lot of FA options at C, and that's OK as long as the Mets could use that $12MM to land my #1 target - Jonathan Lucroy.  At 31, I'd try to get him on as short a of a deal as possible of course, but I'd be willing to go for 3 years/$36MM (IDK if that gets it done).  In Lucroy, I'd be looking for more than what the addition of the stats of a CF, 2B or 3B would bring.  I'd be expecting a major chemistry change up the middle and in the lineup.  Professionalism & leadership.

Mack says –

                        First, let me say that the Mets have two of the best outfielders in the game, Yoenes Cespedes and Michael Conforto.

                        I also expect neither of them to play their first game in 2018 unless they are 100% cleared to go. I look for a new era of controlled, managed, health management.

                        Lastly, and especially when you only have so much money left to spend, you practice the same philosophy all great teams practice on both draft day and the first day you can sign international kids… sign the ‘best player available’.

                        If it takes $12mil to lock up a quality chip that will around for years to come, so be it, and operate the rest of the year with the best players you have in your organization, to fill existing holes.

                        I know in my heart that the biggest long range problem on this team is third base… and I still will sleep better when five quality starters aren’t on the IR list. I don’t see anyone in the $12mil range left that can help us here.

                        So…

                        In 2018, I start my best defensive outfielder in the center of the field, Juan Lagares. If Cespedes and Conforto stay healthy, all I’m looking for here is ++ defense and around a .250 batting average (hitting eighth).

                        Brandon Nimmo will be my OF.

                        And then… when the market proves to Jay Bruce that he is not going to get the kind of deal he feels he’s worth, I lock him down in the 3-year, $30mil range.

                        I get my opening day first baseman, if it is necessary to send Dom Smith to Vegas for a tune-up, and I put RF to bed until the end of the 2020 season.

                        If you have any doubt whether or not this is a good idea, check the outfield pipeline.


Michael Friere says –

                        With the number of open slots on the roster, twelve million dollars will not give Sandy much in the way of high priced options for all of them.  So, he has two choices, as far as I am concerned;

1.  Drop most of that on a single player at a position of need (2B - Jason Kipnis, for example) and fill the rest of the openings with inexpensive players (prospects and/or veterans on one year deals).

2.  Spread the amount evenly across several of the positions and back fill the roster with warm bodies (below replacement value types). I think that putting all of your eggs in one basket is normally not wise.  However, with the limited amount of funds left in the budget, I think Sandy has to address the huge hole at 2B and at the top of the lineup.  Sadly, it will take most of that figure to get an impact player to come to Queens.  Plus, there are players currently on the roster that can fill the remaining needs on your list.   Adding a starter at 2B will free up Wilmer to be your  "super utility" player, like Ben Zobrist.


David Rubin says –

                        I say bring back Reyes at 2nd for a season & use the whole $12-$15 million on Jay Bruce then call it a day. He's a great clubhouse guy, likes Mickey "Cab" Callaway already & can play first and OF. He's not going to get the deal he wants so hopefully he will realize that sooner than later and just come back to Queens already!!


Reese Kaplan says –

I'd deal away Juan Lagares to free up the $15.5 million of salary obligation over the next two years as the team does not have enough overall offense to withstand him in a pretty much defense-only role.  That immediately adds $6 million to this year's total of $12 million.  I would also deal away A.J. Ramos to free up another $9.5 million.  That brings you to $27.5 million.

WIth that I would go hard and heavy after Lorenzo Cain to solve both leadoff and centerfield at about $16 million, leaving you $11.5 million to find another outfielder and bullpen arm.  Someone like Peter Moylan would cost relatively little -- say $3 million -- still leaving you $8.5 million for a Jose Reyes pickup at 2B to fight it out with Wilmer Flores and maybe a veteran backup outfielder such as Craig Gentry, Jarrod Dyson, Ben Revere, Ichiro Suzuki, Peter Bourjos or Gregor Blanco.  Remember that this outfielder is a BACKUP assuming you have Cespedes, Cain and Nimmo starting until Conforto returns.  Then Nimmo slides to the bench as well.


Of course, doing all of that would require creativity and aggressiveness, neither of which are present in the front office.  So let's try an Aldersonesque plan.  Sign Reyes for $3 million, sign two of those aforementioned outfielders (not Cain, of course) for a total of $9 million.  

6 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

Remember that "show me the money" Jose Reyes is already getting paid $4 million in 2018 as a buyout of his option year so it may not take as much to ink him as you would otherwise have thought.

Tom Brennan said...

Reyes may not want to deal with moving, Reese, there is no place like home - so maybe $2 million gets it done.

TP said...

I'm with Mack on the OF of Cespedes-Lagares-Conforto with Nimmo sharing time in CF. However, I'm for adding a low cost OF to cover until Conforto is 100%. I just don't see Bruce as a fit, and I don't want to weaken the defense by having him in RF and Conforto in CF. We have complained about defense for years, so we need to improve, even if it limits an already limited offense.

They still need more pitching. Davis is off the board, and man I'd really love that bullpen with Addison Reed added. Now, throw in maybe a Sewald and a Lugo and maybe Robles as a low leverage/long man and they can field one of the best pens in baseball...and we all know they will need lots and lots of innings from the pen, so they might as well be quality.

Reed and a vet OF would likely consume $12 million (mostly on Reed) but depending on how far Sandy could twist the owners' arms, I'd look for a Harrison-type 2b (if the trade price is reasonable) and settle on Jose, but his defense concerns me now, even at 2b. I do like the idea of Wilmer at 2B or 1B, whee his defense is so so to good (1b), and he is fine insurance for Dom Smith.

With the financial limitations and the uncertainty of Wright (cost, performance, availability), I think the focus on run prevention can keep them in the mix, and if no one steps up offensively (that means you D Smith, Wilmer, TDA, Rosario, Lagares, Nimmo) to contribute, they can look for bats in trade season. We all know if the starters don't step up, they have no chance anyhow.

Viper said...

If you guys think that any money saved by trading Ramos and Lagares is going to end being re-invested on the team, you haven't been paying attention. The only place is going into is Wilpons pockets.

bill metsiac said...

As much as I love what Bruce brought to the Mets last year, I see no spot for him now. $30 mil for 3 years for a backup OFer because he might be able to play some 1B? No. Way!

Ad for the budget, does anyone have a quote of Sandy giving that $12 mil figure, or is it just a "report" that becomes credible through repetition?

Sandy is known for being very tight - lipped and never showing his hand prematurely. I can't picture him making a statement like that, whether it is true or not.

Ome question - - - is Viper a real person, or just a super sized Reese? 😟

Reese Kaplan said...

Viper is my brother from another mother...

Don't worry, though, Bill...the season is saved. Sandy just signed Drew Gagnon, 27 year old reliever with a 6.25 ERA. Print the World Series tickets now.