Tom Brennan: ADRIAN VS LONEY VS LIND
My brother Steve is unhappy with Adrian Gonzalez at first base. One HR, 1 RBI through Tuesday has him concerned.
He also notes that Adam Lind (.303/.362/.513 in 2017) is available. He wonders if the Wilpons are too cheap to snatch up what could well be a better asset.
So he had two questions (trust me, he has more):
1) Will Adrian G do better than James Loney did for the Mets in 2016 (.265/.307/.397), when most of us were dissatisfied with, and complaining a lot about, Loney at 1B? I for one would be surprised if Adrian G in 2018 does better than Loney did that final year.
2) Would it make sense to release Adrian G and sign Lind?
Heck, GM Stevie B even looked at what Lucas Duda signed for and thought for such a small amount, he'd have been better than Gonzalez. Steve could be oh-so-wright, err, I mean right.
In response to Mike Friere's "OPS" article today, I noted this:
"Might Adrian G end up falling into the top end of (the) Poor OPS (category)? Would the Mets have been better off cutting him and re-signing Duda for a year for as cheaply as he signed with KC? Duda so far this spring is .400/.500/.680 in a little over 30 PAs."
Duda is far better than Adrian G so far. And far younger.
Player decisions emphasizing "cheap" can be
hazardous to a team's health.
Thoughts? Fire away, folks. After all, you're the GM, not me. I'm just a blogger.
13 comments:
AG is looking a bit shaky this Spring......I try not to get too worked up over
"make believe stats", but after a while, you start to wonder a bit.
100 at-bats and then A-Gone
How bad will AG need to be for them to pencil Flores in as the everyday 1B?
Alizarine, excellent and pertinent question.
I do not know why Flores is not getting reps at first base. If he can play SS, even shakily, how hard could 1B be for hard-hitting Wilmer? Should be easy.
Maybe they are concerned Wilmer would do TOO well (have his Gehrig moment) and make it very hard for the Mets to bump a hot Flores off first base in a few months to pave way for the return of Smith.
Alzarine, building on your Flores point, Adam Lind against righties in his career is .288/.348/.504. Last year, .303/.364/.534.
What would a Flores/Lind platoon at first base produce? As Flores kills LHPs. It could be huge.
A-Gone is still a force with both the bat and in the field. What makes me say this? Watching the Dodgers the past few years, A-Gone still has it; he couldn't perform last year with his bad back. As long as he stays healthy, you still have a professional hitter playing 1B.
Duda is better? Not even close. I would much rather have A-Gone at the plate with runners in scoring position than Duda. Also, you can't compare the two as fielders or in the clubhouse (A-Gone is a leader).
If the Mets have questions, they can play Flores there, or trade for Jesus Aguilar who can rake and will come very cheaply from the Brewers as rumors suggest that he is not going to make the team now that Braun has taken over 1B, with Thames, the backup
One more thing: Spring training means nothing, especially for veterans!
Remember how unhittable Tanaka was last spring for the Yankees; it didn't quite translate once the bell rung!
Loney was injury replacement when we had no viable alternative.
This season we do hence if Gonzalez doesn't produce or otherwise looks washed up after reasonable regular season opportunity, Flores will likely get increased playing time and could pair with Bruce or Dom Smith if cutting the Gonzalez cord transpires.
At this time however is way too soon to know how Gonzalez will perform when it counts. He's mainly been working himself back into game mode this spring after a lost 2017 with rather bad back. He's also been working on mechanics.
But now as opening day approaches he stated he's transitioning to see-the-ball-hit-the-ball mode - allowing instincts to take over as he has in the past.
So even though we have major doubts, we have to wait and see. Hopefully, we'll be rewarded by this man whose had stellar career and might have more to give.
First, though the guy’s a five-time all-Star, it’s far from clear that Gonzales’ back issues are, umm, behind him. And so there’s no guarantee that what we’re seeing now (and saw last season) isn’t his new reality. But of course, as a five-time all-star, there’s certainly the chance that he has a good season on the cheap, which is a tempting chance to take for this FO.
Lind is an interesting option. Problem is that he’s likely to be signed somewhere in the next week, so you don’t get to give A-Gon a test run and still have a shot at plan B. It’s one or the other.
I don’t see Flores’ lack of 1B reps this spring as a hindrance to putting him there full time if Gonzales flops. Callaway has made it clear that he sees the value and potential in Flores’ bat and wants him in the lineup as often as possible (good riddance, TC). The issue there is that Flores’ bat has far higher marginal value at 2B, SS (gulp), or even LF than it does at 1B, where the comps are mostly sluggers. For example, a breakout offensive year by Flores (which I think is quite likely) makes him a top 6 or 7 offensive LF, a top 5 offensive 2B, or perhaps the best hitting SS in MLB.
He would likely more than hold his own offensively at 1B or 3B as well. So The issue of blocking Dom Smith is worth thinking about, but at the same time, you have to put the best lineup on the field to win today, and you deal with the “problem” of Smith tearing up AAA when it happens.
Given everything, I would probably sign Lind (hey, it’s not my money) and cut bait on Gonzales, using Flores at 1B vs. lefties, and getting him lots of starts at other positions vs. righties (maybe Phil Evans can teach him to catch).
Gonzalez should have accelerated his preparation efforts to not keep the team guessing as to whether he is washed up or about to click in. He has approached it as if he has all the time in the world, a lock on the spot.
Adam, I agree, if it were me, if Lind were not too much money, I cut Gonzo, sign Lind, and let Lind and Flores platoon 1B.
If it holds back Smith, oh well, he should have not arrived obese last season and should have taken more care not to screw up his quad by over-running early on this year.
Thomas - I have zero confidence in Dom. I wouldn't mind bringing in Lind but I'd rather see Flores finally get his shot at a position he's comfortable in, playing vs both RHP and LHP. Flores was jerked around by TC and I think it hurt him. It's hard to build momentum when you're playing your worst position and worried you won't be in the lineup the next night if you go hitless in back-to-back games.
As for AG, I don't know if he's over his back issues or not but he's a professional hitter when healthy (and younger!) but, either way, he's not the long term solution.
Flores is still only 26. Dom is 22. Not a huge gap. I'd love to see if Wilmer can be the long term solution at 1B.
alizarine, I would not be unhappy if Flores was the full time 1B, but I like Lind there, Flores against lefties, and filling in elsewhere, and somehow getting 500 plate appearances.
LongTimeFan, great stats can mean little in the spring, but I worry about bad stats. Let's see some vets hit Roark tonight. Now that the snowstorm is gone (I got 19 inches) it is time to get the boys here playing next Thursday. Hit .250 as a team in April and I won't complain.
Wish granted, Tom. 3 H (2 HR) for Yo so far; 2-Run HR fpr Bruce; 2 H (1 HR) for Frazier, and 2 for the much-maligned A-Gon.
Why do so many veteran fans still over-rate ST stats of veteran players? A-Gon is working his way to good condition, and "accelerating his preparation efforts" carries risk that there's no reason to take.
Wait until at least 100 regular-season ABs before writing off a veteran, especially one with an All-Star pedigree. Remember Jose's 2nd half last year, after he was being written off by the fans?
It's the rookies and fringe players battling for roster spots who need to accelerate and press; not the vets.
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