4/19/18

Mike Friere - So, What Is The Pythagorean Win Theorum?

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In an effort to make "all that is old, new again", I have resurrected an old series of articles that I put together in a previous "Mack's Mets" lifetime that focus on the new wave of statistical analysis that has shaped baseball scouting and player rankings.

Some would refer to them as "Sabermetrics" and others would argue that it isn't necessarily new anymore.  Both of those statements are true, as we are all getting older by the minute, right?

However, to keep things somewhat fresh, I will go over a new statistic each week and then I will attempt to relate that measure to our favorite team and one or more of our current players to see how we rate, so to speak.

In the previous installment of this series, we took a look at wOBA and how it is a more specific measurement then "normal on base percentage".  For this article, let's focus on the "team aspect" and take a quick look at what is called the Pythagorean Win Theorum or "expected win formula" for those of you who prefer English (kidding).

The formula in question (see below) uses a team's runs scored and runs allowed to generate an "expected winning percentage" that can then be used to calculate a win/loss record based on the number of games the team has played.   So, what does the formula look like?


                                                                          (Runs Scored)2
   Expected Win Percentage   =          ----------------------------------------------
                                                            (Runs Scored)2 + (Runs Allowed)2


Considering all of the different calculations that have been thrown about during this series of articles, the formula listed above is actually pretty easy to digest.  Take a team's total runs scored (squared) and divide that number by the sum of a team's runs scored (squared) and a team's runs allowed (squared).  If you remember your basic order of operations (Parenthesis, Exponents, Multiplication, Division, Addition and Subtraction), then you shouldn't have any problems with this particular assignment.  The end result of this computation will be expressed as a percentage between 0.000 and 1.000, which will be used in the next phase of the overall exercise.


Expected Win Total = (Expected Win Percentage) x (Total Number of Games Played)


This figure will be expressed as a number between zero and the maximum number of games played, which can be subtracted from the total number of games to generate an expected win/loss record.

Here is an example, for your reference.  

Our mythical team (The Crushers) played in a total of 150 games for their season, where they scored 620 runs while allowing 456 runs to their opponents.  We have enough information here to use our listed formula and to generate an expected win total.

                    (620)2                      384,400                     384,400
EWP =       ---------------        =      -------------------             =   --------------   =   0.648%
            (620)2 + (456)2      (384,400) + (207936)         592,336


EWT =  (0.648) x (150) =  97.53 Wins (round up to 98 Wins)


Expected Record98-52, so The Crushers should be pretty successful, based on these figures.


As with most formulas, the more data that you have available to you, the more reliable the results.  To further illustrate this point, consider the following
two teams;

Team A has 1 win and 4 losses, while Team B has 4 wins and 1 loss.....you would expect the team with a better record to have a better differential and thus, a better
expected win percentage.   But, what if Team A's losses were all by one run and their only win was by four runs?   Furthermore, what if the exact opposite were true for Team B?  Both teams would have a similar expected win percentage (likely 0.500%), but Team B (0.800) would be three games ahead of Team A (0.200) in the standings and their win percentages would be WAY OFF, right?  Excessive results have a way of "normalizing" over the course of a full season, so this calculation is more valuable as you "take a look backward" OR to estimate how a team might perform in an ensuing season, provided the basic roster stays consistent.

There are slightly different versions of this formula that tweak the exponent, but the listed versions does a pretty good job of getting you in the "ballpark" so to speak. Oh and they also have versions of this formula that work for other professional sports, in case you are curious.

Lastly, taking this with a HUGE grain of salt, despite an UGLY loss last night the Mets are 12-3 on the young season with 71 runs scored and 51 runs surrendered.   If you use our fomula(s), that differential would equate to an expected win percentage of 0.660 or a record of 10-5, so the team may be overachieving a bit but their successful start is probably not a fluke.








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Florida 7 - St. Lucie 6

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KISSIMMEE, Fla. (April 18, 2018) – The Florida Fire Frogs handed the St. Lucie Mets a difficult 7-6 loss on Wednesday at Osceola County Stadium.

Florida second baseman Alejandro Salazar ripped a single with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth to bring home Jared James and give the Fire Frogs the walkoff win. It was a tough pill for the Mets to swallow. James started the inning with an innocent ground ball to first base that took a bad high hop over Dash Winningham’s head. James wound up with a double.

After a sac bunt moved James to third, the Mets intentionally walked the bases loaded. Reliever Matt Pobereyko quickly got ahead of Salazar 0-2, but Salazar recovered to get a hit past third base for the game winner.

The Mets trailed 6-3 after five innings but good bullpen work and clutch hitting got them back into a tie. Winningham ripped a double in the sixth to make it 6-4. In the seventh, Luis Carpio singled to bring in Jacob Zanon to make it 6-5. Then with two outs, Carpio avoided a tag at second base on a steal attempt long enough for Andres Gimenez to run home from third base and score the tying run.

Gimenez went 3 for 5 with a triple, two RBI and two runs. Zanon was 2 for 4 with a walk and three runs scored.

Ian Strom went 2 for 4 to extend his hitting streak to seven games.

Relievers Ryder Ryan and Joe Zanghi combined for 3.2 scoreless innings. Neither reliever has given up a run this season.

Mets starter Josh Prevost allowed six runs (four earned) in 4.1 innings. He struck out six and walked two.

The Mets had early leads of 2-1 and 3-2 but could not hold either. The Mets dropped to 0-4 in road games.

The Mets (6-6) and Fire Frogs (5-8) conclude their series at Osceola County Stadium on Thursday. First pitch is 6:31 p.m.
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New Hampshire 5 - Binghamton 4

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Press Release - 

MANCHESTER, NH – The Rumble Ponies plated two in the ninth innings, but left the potential tying run on second in a 5-4 loss to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats on Wednesday night at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium. Former Major Leaguer Craig Breslow slammed the door to send Binghamton to their sixth loss in seven games.
Trailing by three, the Ponies filled the bases to start the final inning against Fisher Cats reliever Andrew Case. Peter Alonso chased the righty from the game with a sacrifice fly. Patrick Mazeika greeted Breslow by blooping an RBI single to right, trimming the deficit to one. Breslow bounced back and struck out Matt Oberste to end the game.

The Ponies were forced to muster a comeback bid after New Hampshire grabbed the lead with a tiebreaking three-run sixth inning. With two aboard and the game tied at two, Luis Rojas summoned Johnny Magliozzi. The Rumble Ponies newest reliever hit Harold Ramirez before issuing a bases-loaded walk to Andrew Guillotte. Gunnar Heidt capped the game-changing inning by pulling a two-run single into left.

New Hampshire’s three-run inning halted any momentum the Rumble Ponies compiled after tying the game in the top of the sixth. After Fisher Cat starter Francisco Rios exited due to an apparent injury, Alonso stroked an RBI double against reliever Dusty Isaacs. Oberste supplied a game-tying sacrifice fly later in the inning.

Rios was sharp to open the game for New Hampshire. He retired 13 of the first 15 Ponies he faced, before stranding two in the fifth. The righty surrendered a single to John Mora in the sixth before exiting in the no-decision.

Tim Tebow extended his hitting streak to five games with a single in the fifth. The Rumble Ponies outfielder earned his first walk of the season in the ninth and scored.
Isaacs (1-0) allowed one inherited runner to score and surrendered a run of his own, but still picked up the win in an inning of work.

Joseph Shaw (0-2) took the loss after watching two of the runners he handed to Magliozzi score in the sixth. The Rumble Ponies starter was touched for four runs (three earned) on seven hits over 5-2/3 innings. He struck out three and did not issue a walk.
The Rumble Ponies (4-6) conclude their first road trip of the season on 

Thursday morning at 10:35 AM. RHP Andrew Church takes the hill against RHP Jordan Romano in the series finale. 

POSTGAME NOTES: Joshua Torres struck out three over 1-1/3 innings of scoreless relief…Tim Tebow’s five-game hitting streak is the longest active streak among Rumble Ponies hitters…Rumble Ponies starters have failed to pick up the win in their last seven games
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Columbia 8 - Greenville 4

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Press Release - 

GREENVILLE, SC – David Peterson (20th overall) and Quinn Brodey (97th) were two of the first three players selected by the Mets in the 2017 MLB First Year Player Draft. And with good reason. Peterson flummoxed Greenville hitters en route to his first win of the 2018 season and Brodey homered twice in Columbia’s 8-4 series-sweep clinching victory over the Drive on Wednesday. It was the first series sweep for the Fireflies since August 15-17, 2017 (@ Augusta).

Peterson – the Mets first round selection last June – scattered just three hits over six innings and punched out four. The 6-foot-6 left-hander over-powered Drive hitters in his first start with the Fireflies. At the plate, Brodey continued his red-hot road trip. His 10th and 11th hits of the six-game trip were towering opposite-field home runs – in consecutive innings! Brodey becomes the third Firefly in franchise history (Dash Winningham, Michael Paez; 2017) to notch a two-homer game, but the first to bash homers in consecutive innings. Brodey’s hit streak has reached seven games.

For the third straight night, Columbia (9-4) took a lead within the first two innings. A three-run second frame did the trick against Greenville (3-10) starter Kutter Crawford (L, 0-1). It began with a Jeremy Vasquez single and a Brodey walk. Two batters later, Walter Rasquin drove in a run with a base hit to center field and Raphael Gladu followed with a two-run single.

The bats were alive again in the third. Matt Winaker took a Crawford fastball off his leg and zipped to second when Vasquez smoked his second (of three on Wednesday) hits to left field. Then, Rigoberto Terrazas bounced a seeing-eye single up the middle that scored Winaker.

If not for Ramfis Berroa’s RBI single in the bottom of the fourth, Columbia would have kept the shutout going.

The Fireflies extended the lead to four runs in the sixth and did so with two outs on the board. First, Gladu tripled down the right-field line. Dan Rizzie then struck a fastball back up the middle and scored his teammate. That was Rizzie’s second RBI of the season and now becomes the 11th Firefly hitter (of 12) that has multiple RBIs.

For the first time all series, Columbia ran into a little trouble in the bottom of the seventh. Cole Brannen ripped a double that plated a run and then C.J. Chatham followed that with a two-run double. Columbia’s 5-1 lead was whittled down to just 5-4. With Chatham – the tying run – sitting at second with just one out, Pedro Lopez went to his bullpen and called on righty Carlos Hernandez. The 23-year-old retired Pedro Castellanos and two hitters later struck out Victor Acosta looking, stranding the tying run on base.

Brodey was the final act of this convincing sweep with his dingers in the eighth and ninth innings. The first a solo shot, and the next a two-run blast.

After Hernandez danced out of trouble in the seventh, he struck out the side – which he has done now in back to back outings – in the eighth and Stephen Villines did the same in the ninth. Hernandez and Villines have tallied 11 and 13 strikeouts in just 5.2 and 9.1 IP respectively.

Also of note: Fireflies hitters totaled 64 hits and Columbia pitchers tallied 71 punch-outs during the six-game road trip. The Fireflies own the league’s highest batting average (.286) and the pitching staff has struck out the most batters (141) in the SAL.

Columbia returns home and starts a three-game series against the Hickory Crawdads at Spirit Communications Park on Thursday at 7:05 p.m
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Las Vegas 51s 2, Fresno Grizzlies 1

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Press Release -

The 51s defeated the Grizzlies, 2-1, in game two of the four-game series and the seven game homestand (series tied 1-1) before a crowd of 2,227 at Cashman Field.

Las Vegas won the game despite recording one hit: a two-run homer to left field in the seventh inning by right fielder Bryce Brentz (1-for-3).

51s right-hander Chris Flexen tossed 4 shutout innings in the no decision. He allowed 3 hits, walked 5 and struck out 3 on 89 pitches (46 strikes).

Fresno right-hander Cy Sneed tossed a 6-inning, no-hitter and walked 4 and struck out 7 on 92 pitches (56 strikes).

The Grizzlies scored their lone run on a homer in the sixth inning by second baseman Tyler White.
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4/18/18

MORE ROSTER MOVES - LHP David Peterson

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Effective Wednesday, April 18, 2018

- RHP Marcel Renteria transferred to Columbia’s disabled list

- LHP David Peterson transferred to Columbia from short-season A Brooklyn


Peterson will pitch tonight.
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RUMBLE PONIES GAME NOTES: Game #10 - Rumble Ponies (4-5) at Fisher Cats (7-3) - 6:35 PM

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BINGHAMTON RUMBLE PONIES
(4-5), 3rd Eastern Division, 2.5 GB
(New York Mets)
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
(7-3), 1st Eastern Division, 2.0 GA
(Toronto Blue Jays)


Wednesday, April 18, 2018  6:35 PM
Northeast Delta Dental Stadium  Manchester, NH
RHP Joseph Shaw (0-1, 6.00) vs. RHP Francisco Rios (0-1, 6.14)
Broadcast: NewsRadio 1290 AM WNBF, MiLB.TV

PONIES STOP SKID AT FIVE GAMES: For the first time since completing an opening-series sweep against Portland, Binghamton was in the win column. The Rumble Ponies utilized three home runs and three doubles, breaking a 3-3 tie in the eighth inning for a 4-3 win at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium Tuesday night.

BINGHAMTON STARTER: RHP Joseph Shaw gears up for his second start of the season. On April10, Shaw was slapped with a loss against Akron at NYSEG Stadium. He tossed five scoreless frames before coughing up four runs in the sixth inning. The Rumble Ponies offense only gave Shaw one run of support in a 5-1 loss.

PONY POWER: The Binghamton bats struck for three home runs on Tuesday night in Manchester, tied for the most in a game this season (Opening Day). The Rumble Ponies had collected three home runs in their previous six games before Tuesday’s trio of longballs.

ALONSO AT IT AGAIN: Rumble Ponies 1B Peter Alonso collected two more hits on Tuesday (2-for-5), giving him four multi-hit games this season. No other Binghamton bat has more than two multi-hit games. Alonso also leads the club with two multi-RBI games. His .375 clip ranks 4th in the League.

HEISMAN HEATING: OF Tim Tebow has hits in four straight games and in five of the last six. He is 5-for-his-last-14 with three doubles.

COVERING YOUR BASES: Binghamton garnered a season-best 22 total bases in Tuesday’s 4-3 win against New Hampshire. In the four games prior, all losses, the Rumble Ponies collected just 23 combined total bases. INF Jeff McNeil set a individual season-best with 8 total bases on Tuesday.

BIG MAC: INF Jeff McNeil became the first Rumble Pony in 2018 to hit multiple home runs in one game. After launching a third-inning solo shot off of Jon Harris, McNeil connected again in the eighth inning for a solo jack against Justin Shafer. The second home run, his third of the season, would prove to be the game-winning run. McNeil, after homering on Opening Day, missed five games on the disabled list. 

MULTI-HIT MEN: Three Rumble Ponies collected more than one hit on Tuesday night, leading to a season-best 10 hits. OF Tim Tebow’s two-double effort was the first multi-hit game of his Double-A career, while Jeff McNeil’s two-homer night was his first multi-hit game in Double-A since April 8, 2016. Peter Alonso has 8 multi-hit efforts in 20 Double-A Games.

UP NEXT: The Rumble Ponies and Fisher Cats conclude their rain-shortened three-game series on Thursday morningBinghamton sends RHP Andrew Church to the bump to challenge New Hampshire RHP Jordan Romano. First pitch is slated for 10:35 AM at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium.
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Roster Moves

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RP John Magliozzi was transferred from Low-A Brooklyn to AA-Binghamton, to fill the hole created when RP Gerson Bautista was promoted to the MLB-Mets.

Also, the Mets signed veteran hurler Vance Worley and are assigning him to extended spring training before deciding where he should go.  With Mickey Jannis having been dispatched to AA, it may be he takes the opening in Las Vegas.  His best season was with Pittsburgh in 2014 when he went 8-4 over 17 starts with a 2.85 ERA for the season.  


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Binghamton 4 - New Hampshire 3

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MANCHESTER, NH – Jeff McNeil blasted a pair of home runs, including a tiebreaking shot in the eighth, to send the Binghamton Rumble Ponies to a skid-snapping 4-3 win over the New Hampshire Fisher Cats on Tuesday night at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium. Tyler Bashlor notched a four-out save, stranding the potential tying run on third base to end Binghamton’s five-game losing streak.

With the game tied at three in the eighth, McNeil struck for the second time, drilling a 1-1 pitch from Justin Shafer over the wall in right-center. The longball cemented McNeil’s first career multiple home run game. The third baseman had put Binghamton on the board with a solo shot in the third.

Owning a one-run advantage, Binghamton leaned on their bullpen and defense to shut the door. Lourdes Gurriel started the bottom of the eighth with a bloop down the left-field line, but was gunned down by Tim Tebow attempting to stretch the hit into a double. Despite the play, New Hampshire put two runners aboard against Binghamton’s pen. Bashlor stranded both and ended the threat by retiring Conor Panas.

In the ninth, Juan Kelly doubled down the left-field line. Pinch-runner Gunnar Heidt was sacrificed to third, setting the table for the heart of the Fisher Cats lineup. Bashlor struck out Bo Bichette and induced Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to fly out to end the game.
In addition to his strong throw in the eighth, Tim Tebow added a pair of doubles, going 2-for-4 at the plate.

Austin McGeorge (1-0) collected the win out of the bullpen with 1-2/3 innings of scoreless relief. Bashlor earned his first save of the season.
Shafer (1-1) suffered the loss in relief.

Binghanton starter Marcos Molina labored through four innings in the no-decision. The Rumble Ponies starter allowed two runs on six hits and threw 84 pitches before handing off to the bullpen.

The Rumble Ponies (4-5) continue their visit to Manchester on Wednesday at 6:35 PM. RHP Joseph Shaw takes the mound against RHP Francisco Rios. 

POSTGAME NOTES: Matt Oberste joined the Rumble Ponies from Las Vegas (AAA) prior to the game and homered in his second at-bat…Peter Alonso’s RBI single in the fifth ended an 0-for-20 stretch for Binghamton with runners in scoring position…the five-game losing streak was Binghamton’s longest since 2014
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Columbia 7 - Greenville 5

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GREENVILLE, SC – The Fireflies offense erupted again on Tuesday night in Greenville, springing for 11 hits in a 7-5 victory over the Drive. Columbia has taken the first two games of the series and goes for the sweep – and a 5-1 road trip – with a win on Wednesday.

Columbia’s (8-4) batting order could not be stopped on Tuesday and at one point the visitors scored in six consecutive frames (from the second to the seventh). The 11 hits gives the Fireflies 51 during the first five games of the road trip. Pedro Lopez’s team leads the South Atlantic League in batting average (.283) and total hits (115).

The Fireflies jumped ahead 4-0 after three and a half innings. The scoring began in the second when Quinn Brodey ripped a triple and scored moments later on Rigoberto Terrazas’ssingle. The club plated two more in the third, and inning highlighted by Blake Tiberi’s screaming line-drive RBI single.

In the fourth, Raphael Gladu reached against Greenville (3-9) starter Jhonathan Diaz (L, 1-1) and then Giovanney Alfonso stepped to the plate. The infielder bashed his second double of the night and third straight dating back to his final at-bat in the ninth inning on Monday. The two-bagger scored Gladu and Columbia went ahead 4-0.

The Drive cut the deficit in half with a pair of runs in the bottom of the fourth, but the Fireflies answered right back in the fifth. This time, Brodey drove in his first of two runs, the other RBI coming in the seventh. Columbia’s centerfielder is on a gigantic tear: he’s compiled 10 hits in the first five games of the road trip and has raised his batting average to .310.

In the sixth, Scott Manea scored the loudest run of the evening by bashing a 402-foot home run (his first of the season) over the left-center field wall.

The home team struck back with two more scores in the seventh and another in the eighth. The tying run sat at first base when Columbia manager Pedro Lopez called on side-arm right-hander Stephen Villines out of the bullpen. Villines retired Samuel Miranda to end the inning, and then struck out the side in order in the ninth to secure the win (and his first save of the year).

Villines, starter Marcel Renteria (W, 1-1), Nicolas Debora and Joshua Payne combined to punch out 13 more Drive hitters. This follows the franchise-record tying 17 punchouts Columbia pitchers totaled in the series opener against Greenville on Monday night. Fireflies pitchers lead the league – by a wide margin – with 130 Ks.    

Renteria was particularly sharp on the mound, allowing just two runs over 5.1 IP and fanning seven hitters on his own.

Another Tuesday night nugget: all nine Columbia hitters reached base safely.

The Fireflies aim for their first series sweep of the season with a win Wednesday over Greenville at Fluor Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 ET and you can listen to the action of the game on FOX Sports Radio 1400 AM, ColumbiaFireflies.com and the TuneIn Radio app starting at 6:45 p.m.
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